As the fog of the war of the initial Operation Sindoor settles, it seems that the Trump administration was working behind the scenes against India in a far more profound way than we thought. What does that mean for us? Let us analyze.
Nothing about Pakistan's behavior makes sense. Why is it acting like the sacrificial lamb tied to the tree by the hunter so he can get the lion? Yes, the hunter may or may not get the lion, but the lamb will be gone!
In one of the most significant speeches of this century, Indian PM Narendra Modi laid down his doctrine against terror. It will have a pathbreaking impact on the world. Our detailed analysis.
China is not playing by the West's rules. It’s not negotiating. It’s not retaliating. It’s dismantling — the dollar, the supply chains, the brands, even the minds of Western youth.
In the early 13th century, southern France was home to a religious movement known as Catharism, which the Catholic Church considered heretical. Pope Innocent III called for a crusade against the Cathars, leading to the Albigensian Crusade.
On one side were the citizens of Béziers - a mix of Catholics and the Cathars. And on the other side were the Crusaders. They had a massive army assembled from all over Europe, led by papal legate Arnaud Amalric.
When the crusader army approached in July 1209, Béziers citizens believed that there would be an opportunity for negotiation. The Catholic leaders made plans to negotiate with the crusaders offering the surrender of the Cathars so that the city could be spared. At the least secure terms for those not involved in heresy.
What they did not realize was that the crusaders were not interested in negotiation.
They had been given papal orders to show no mercy to heretics. Their aim was total destruction to set a terrifying example.
When the crusaders demanded the surrender of the Cathars, the city’s leaders hesitated—hoping diplomacy might spare them.
But the crusaders, driven by zeal and impatience, chose force over dialogue. They stormed the city without warning. It fell swiftly.
What followed was a brutal massacre. Thousands perished—Cathars and Catholics, men, women, and children—indiscriminately slaughtered.
The line attributed to Arnaud Amalric, “Kill them all; God will know His own,” became a chilling symbol of the crusaders’ merciless resolve.
There was no interest in negotiation, no effort at discernment—only a savage belief in righteous annihilation. It was holy war, stripped of humanity.
When you misread the intentions and mindset of your adversary in a war, you can under-rate his/her actions.
You may believe you are playing the game of negotiation, but he may be engaged in the fight to the finish!
Is US and the West making the same mistake?
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My sister shared this extremely insighful podcast with Tom Friedman with me. Listen to it when you get some time.
Here are a few things that Tom Friedman discusses which are extremely relevant and revealing at the same time.
What one must realize is that America is now undergoing its own "Cultural Revolution." And, it's a "purge vs purge" scenario! America isn’t being destroyed by China—it’s devouring itself through a relentless cycle of purge politics.
Liberals cancel conservatives, conservatives strike back, and no institution—from universities to corporations to government agencies—is spared the fallout.
This is no longer a battle of left versus right; it’s a national suicide pact disguised as moral clarity.
And, this is what is different in the two societies and powers - while China is authoritarian and has its own internal fissures and pressures that could tear it apart, specifically post Xi Jinping, the American society is tearing itself apart and gutting its own institutions which in turn were destroying and targeting its own people.
In that scenario, when Trump introduced tariffs, he believed it was a maneuver to coerce China into a deal. Trump even says that the Chinese have reached out to his administration a number of times and they are "talking".
What if China is not interested? Well, Trump thinks there will be a deal.
From all the accounts, the two - the US and China - are approaching these battles very differently.
Let us get the facts in place first.
The Trump administration has levied tariffs of upto 245% on China.
The White House said China is facing up to a 245 percent tariff on imports to the U.S. "as a result of its retaliatory actions," as the trade war between the world's two largest economies continues to heat up. The top potential tariff was referenced in a fact sheet published by the White House late on Tuesday. It accompanied an executive order signed by President Donald Trump that launched an investigation into the "national security risks posed by U.S. reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products." (Source: "China Faces 245% Trump Tariff" / Newsweek)
China, on the other hand, has put 125% tariffs on American Goods.
Interestingly, China imports much less from the US than it exports to the US. So, if you consider that, China loses far more in this battle than the US does.
Adam Posen, head of the Peterson Institute think tank, told The Guardian newspaper: "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos. What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them." (Source: Newsweek)
So they both aren't backing off.
Here are some actions that China is taking:
These actions are real - for example, Boeing jets earmarked for delivery to China were returning to the US from the completion center in Zhoushan. (Source: Boeing jet earmarked for China returns to the U.S. from China amid tariff war, / CNBC)
Similarly, the chipmakers like Intel and Micron are facing the heat as well.
For semiconductors, TSMC is the only manufacturer with a gross profit above 50%. If China imposes a 125% tariff on the Nvidia chip that TSMC produces from Taiwan, the same effect will hurt its own companies in need of the chips. Chinese industry supply chain experts said the new measure will hit US IDMs (TI, OnSemi, Qorvo, ADI, Micron, Intel), whose analog chips and logic chips are made in America, and drive the demand for local alternatives. (Source: China Tweaks Origin Rules to Dodge 125% Tariffs on US Semiconductors / TechSoda)
The US manufacturers and companies will lose out on one of the largest markets in the world.
On the other hand, Tiktok is replete with videos from Chinese makers who are saying that they are the ones making products from luxury brands like Chanel, Hermes, Lululemon etc.
Many of these videos may be mere propaganda. For, if one digs deeper, the facts may point to a false narrative. These manufacturers may not even be the suppliers of the leading luxury brands and may be just knock-off producers.
One TikTok user, who goes by Wang Sen, claims that he is the original equipment manufacturer for most luxury brands, while standing in front of a wall of what appear to be ultra-spendy Birkin bags. OEMs work behind the scenes to make the products that another company then sells under its own brand. “Why don’t you just contact us and buy from us? You won’t believe the prices we (will) give you,” he said in one clip. His video was later taken down by the app. In the meantime, though, DHgate, an online wholesale store infamous for selling Chinese dupes of luxury goods, has shot to #2 on the US Apple app store. Another app, Taobao, China’s OG e-commerce site, is at #7. It’s highly improbable that these are real suppliers for brands like Lululemon and Chanel, multiple experts told CNN. Legitimate manufacturers usually sign non-disclosure agreements, so it’s unlikely that these creators are selling the real thing. (Source: "Chinese factories are flooding TikTok with luxury goods. Not so fast, experts say" / CNN)
True or not, these videos and the narrative behind them cause significant harm to luxury brands in the US and the EU.
With this, China is systematically dismantling the power of Western brand loyalty by replicating the visual and emotional appeal of luxury goods at scale. Through hyper-efficient manufacturing and savvy social media marketing—especially on platforms like TikTok—Chinese firms are churning out near-identical versions of high-end products at a fraction of the cost. What was once exclusive is now ubiquitous.
The aura of prestige tied to Western labels is being eroded as Chinese alternatives flood the market, offering style without the steep price tag. This mass democratization of status symbols is not just disrupting fashion—it’s altering consumer psychology.
Why pay thousands for a handbag when a nearly indistinguishable clone is trending online for $ 50?
By doing this, China isn’t just competing; it’s rewriting the rules of luxury and aspiration. The result: a global market where branding is no longer sacred, and imitation becomes a form of innovation.
Not content with this, China has been preparing for what is known as "Patent Ambushes" for years.
Chinese manufacturers have developed several strategies to gain leverage in intellectual property (IP) disputes with U.S. firms, including preemptively patenting products or components they mass-produce for American companies.
This practice is part of a broader "IP counteroffensive" in which Chinese firms aggressively assert intellectual property rights, sometimes even on products originally designed or patented by their U.S. partners.
Chinese manufacturers often file for "utility model" (UM) patents, which are easier, faster, and cheaper to obtain than invention patents.
Once granted, a UM patent can be used by the Chinese holder to sue foreign companies (including their own U.S. clients) for infringement within China, potentially blocking manufacturing or sales of those products in the Chinese market.
You see, the Chinese patent system allows local entities to quickly secure patents on products for which they may only be the manufacturer, not the original designer. This can put U.S. companies at a disadvantage, especially if they have not secured comprehensive patent protection in China. In some cases, Chinese partners have used these patents to block U.S. companies’ operations, demand licensing fees, or gain leverage in negotiations
Look at this closely - this is not price competition anymore — it’s economic carpet bombing designed to kill profitability and erase identity.
One major initiative from China is the unplugging from the U.S.-Dollar ecosystem.
China has signed currency swap agreements with 20 BRI partner countries to facilitate trade and stabilize exchange rates. These agreements allow partner nations to access RMB liquidity for cross-border transactions. China established RMB clearing mechanisms in 17 BRI countries, enabling direct RMB settlements for trade and investment without converting to USD or other currencies.
Additionally, China is aggressively advancing its digital yuan (e-CNY) to facilitate cross-border settlements and reduce its reliance on SWIFT, particularly through initiatives such as the mBridge platform and bilateral central bank digital currency (CBDC) trials with strategic partners.
China’s push to internationalise the yuan has gathered pace through a mix of institutional and bilateral mechanisms. A network of 31 offshore clearing banks now spans 27 countries, while the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (Cips) continues to grow. Although Cips still leans on Swift infrastructure, it provides Beijing with an alternative pathway to settle trade in yuan. Projects like mBridge – a multicentral bank digital currency platform involving the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Hong Kong – showcase China’s interest in building new global financial channels. While it remains in early stages, it reflects a broader ambition to insulate the Chinese economy from future financial sanctions or shocks. Bilateral agreements are also key. China has expanded yuan swap lines to 40 countries, including Brazil and Argentina, which now use the currency for part of their bilateral trade. At the same time, capital controls and exchange rate management still limit broader yuan adoption, its usage is steadily increasing in emerging markets. (Source: China's assertive stance is strategic to its global trade dominance / The National)
It appears that China, under Xi Jinping, is preparing for a "fight to the finish."
This is not a back-and-forth negotiation where two sides play along. The Chinese side seems to have taken the tariff war as an opportunity to decouple and sow chaos.
Xi Jinping sees Trump’s tariffs not as a policy dispute anymore — but as the opening act of a war for global hegemony.
China is not merely distancing itself from the West—it’s deliberately burning bridges.
This isn’t a strategy aimed at future reconciliation or normalization.
Instead, Beijing anticipates a direct and unavoidable collision with the existing global order. Every move—from decoupling supply chains to forging parallel international institutions and challenging Western technology ecosystems—signals a shift from engagement to confrontation.
The Chinese leadership sees the current world structure as inherently biased and unsustainable, and rather than trying to reform it from within, it is preparing to survive—and thrive—in the aftermath of its collapse. China’s long game is not about coexistence, but about dominance in a post-crash reality.
In that envisioned future, where Western-led institutions lie weakened or discredited, China aims to rise as the nucleus of a new world order—one designed on its terms, shaped by its values, and led by its networks. This is the logic behind its aggressive global posture.
To fully comprehend Beijing's actions and direction, it is essential to understand China's internal politics.
For decades, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics was dominated by two primary factions: the Shanghai Gang, also known as the "Blue Team," aligned with Jiang Zemin and representing the Elitists; and the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction, or "Red Team," led by Hu Jintao and representing the Populists. Despite ideological and power struggles between them, a functional balance was maintained—often described as collective leadership.
That equilibrium was shattered with the rise of Xi Jinping. While neither faction had initially claimed him as their own, Xi built a loyal power base during his tenure as Party Secretary and Governor of Zhejiang province (2002–2007), giving rise to the so-called Zhejiang Clique.
Since assuming power, Xi has systematically dismantled the traditional factional balance through purges, anti-corruption campaigns, and centralization of authority.
The Reformists vs Leftists battle was ongoing in China when Hu Jintao took office.
But China’s spectacular economic growth and Beijing’s consequent optimism about its future obscured major political changes. By 2002, the CCP’s conservative neo-Marxists, who had been shunted aside by Deng and Jiang, struck back with a vengeance. Hu struggled against his predecessor Jiang’s political moves to remain powerful and influential. Weakened by this factional fighting, Hu buckled under intense pressure from ideological opponents of “reform and opening” and rolled back key economic and legal reforms. He switched from a pro-entrepreneur economic posture to a policy that created national champions. Hundreds of industries deemed “strategic” were consolidated and secured mass subsidies from the state. Beijing once again protected failing Chinese state-owned enterprises. Private entrepreneurs in China suddenly had a difficult time accessing capital. (Source: China’s Steps Backward Began Under Hu Jintao / Foreign Policy)
In reality, Hu Jintao laid the critical groundwork for Xi Jinping’s assertive foreign policy and rapid military modernization.
Under Hu, China adopted a more outward-facing economic and strategic posture. He encouraged state-owned enterprises to scour the globe for critical commodities and invest in foreign assets—effectively an early version of what would become Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Hu also introduced the military’s “New Historic Missions,” directing the PLA to safeguard China’s expanding global commercial interests. During his tenure, China began pressing its maritime claims more aggressively and used multinational missions in the Middle East and Africa as opportunities to hone the PLA’s power projection capabilities.
Crucially, Hu initiated the development of overseas logistics and naval infrastructure, laying the groundwork for what would later be known as the “String of Pearls” strategy. By building ports and support hubs across the Indian Ocean, he sought to secure China’s energy lifelines and extend its military reach far beyond its immediate borders.
It is also a fact that Hu had begun to look at the South China Sea more closely.
Foreign oil companies exploring in these seas were sent démarches as objections and were harassed by Chinese naval and civilian law enforcement vessels, even when in international waters. Beijing buttressed its administrative control of disputed waters and islets, and international oil companies were told to stop joint exploration with other South China Sea maritime claimants such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. These countries faced unrelenting Chinese diplomatic pressure to cease fishing and oil exploration. In essence, China began treating the South China Sea as Chinese waters—and the activities of other countries in them as violations of China’s laws. (Source: China’s Steps Backward Began Under Hu Jintao / Foreign Policy)
Xi Jinping's rule has brought about many changes. Xi Jinping’s leadership marked a significant departure from that of his predecessor, Hu Jintao, in terms of style and political model. The shift wasn't just in personality—it was a significant restructuring of power within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Xi Jinping systematically dismantled the Communist Youth League's (CYL) influence within the Chinese Communist Party. He slashed its budget, stripped its organizational autonomy, and sidelined key figures like Premier Li Keqiang, despite his high rank.
In the 2022 Party Congress, Xi ensured that no CYL-affiliated leaders were elevated to the Politburo Standing Committee, effectively cutting off the faction’s future pipeline.
Once a powerful grooming ground for China's technocratic elite, the "Tuanpai" has been reduced to a hollow shell. By 2022, the Youth League, once central to party leadership, had been rendered politically irrelevant under Xi’s centralized rule.
Today, however, Xi Jinping’s rule is under growing pressure. Internally, he faces purges, economic stagnation, and rising dissent. Externally, he is constrained by global scrutiny and a hostile geopolitical climate. While he remains firmly in control for now, the cracks are widening.
The danger isn’t immediate collapse, but a regime that turns more paranoid, more nationalistic, and more reckless to maintain its grip on power.
Xi has not just ruled. restructured the CCP into a one-man, one thought, and one destiny — his own.
Here is an interesting discussion on the dangers to Xi Jinping's supremacy.
It is in this context that one needs to evaluate the actions from Beijing.
In the last few months and years, China has been preparing for a day when someone like Trump would work to stall Beijing's march forward. How China would then respond is the planning that Xi administration has been doing for long.
Let us check how.
Export Diversification: China is actively reducing its dependence on the U.S. by deepening trade ties across Southeast Asia, Europe, and beyond. Xi Jinping’s recent visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia underscore this strategic shift. These tours weren’t symbolic—they resulted in key trade agreements aimed at strengthening regional partnerships. By securing new markets and diversifying its economic relationships, China is building a buffer against U.S. tariffs and decoupling efforts. This pivot reflects Beijing’s long-term vision: to reposition itself as a central node in a multipolar trade world, less vulnerable to American pressure and more aligned with emerging global power centers. (also read - China unexpectedly anoints new trade negotiator amid US tariff war/Reuters)
Domestic Market Strength: China’s vast domestic consumer market and its ability to deploy state-driven stimulus offer strong insulation against U.S. tariffs. When key export sectors are impacted, the Chinese government steps in with targeted subsidies, cushioning the blow and sustaining economic momentum. This model isn’t new—Beijing has historically used state support to weather external shocks and stabilize industries. By backing its exporters and stimulating domestic consumption, China maintains internal economic balance while absorbing external pressure. In essence, its centrally managed economy provides the flexibility to adapt, absorb, and strategically respond to tariff-driven disruptions without derailing its broader development agenda.
Using Currency and Financial Tools: China can devalue the yuan to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, making its exports more competitive. However, this strategy carries the risk of triggering capital flight and eroding investor confidence. Another powerful, albeit risky, lever is its massive holding of over $760 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. Selling these assets could destabilize U.S. financial markets and drive up American borrowing costs. Yet, such a move would also hurt China’s own reserves and investments. These tools reflect Beijing’s strategic arsenal—potent but double-edged—carefully calibrated to signal strength while avoiding self-inflicted damage in an already fragile global economic landscape. (also read this from Time magazine)
So, is this when Xi Jinping goes for the final showdown?
It is now saying so itself - fight to the end!
China said Tuesday it would “fight to the end” and take countermeasures against the United States to safeguard its own interests after President Donald Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports. The Commerce Ministry said the U.S.‘s imposition of “so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’” on China is “completely groundless and is a typical unilateral bullying practice.” (Source: "China says it will 'fight to the end' after Trump threatens to impose still more tariffs" / AP)
A Chinese YouTuber has shared a secret plan aimed at targeting the West.
These are the main points in the video:
China to launch Diplomatic Counteroffensive – The United Front Strategy: The Chinese Communist Party’s core strategy is to forge a global anti-Trump alliance by rallying nations disillusioned with U.S. tariff aggression. Key targets include traditional American allies such as Germany, France, the UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Swing states like India, Vietnam, and ASEAN members are also being courted to tilt the global balance. China is deploying its United Front Work Department to subtly fuel internal dissent within democratic societies, exploit ideological and economic cracks in alliances like NATO, QUAD, and Five Eyes, and promote alternatives to the U.S.-led economic order. Central to this effort is a push for de-dollarization and the advancement of a Eurasian trade and finance bloc anchored by China, Russia, and Iran. Through these maneuvers, Beijing aims not only to weaken Trump’s coalition but to reshape the global order—reducing U.S. dominance and amplifying China’s influence across geopolitical and financial spheres. Reality Check - While shrewd, this strategy overestimates China's charm and underestimates American counter-pressure. Europe and Asia may criticize Trump’s style, but they fear China's authoritarian overreach more.
Financial War Doctrine – Decapitate U.S. Economic Power: China’s two-stage economic retaliation strategy is designed to strike at the heart of U.S. financial stability. The first phase involves extracting elite Chinese capital from the American financial system. Under new directives, Chinese officials and influential elites are required to repatriate any foreign-held assets exceeding $200,000. Noncompliance is treated as treason—ensuring strict adherence. The second phase aims to trigger panic across U.S. markets. This would involve a massive sell-off: $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds and $2 trillion in American corporate equity and debt holdings. The goal is clear—destabilize U.S. financial markets, drive investor fear, spike borrowing costs, and tip the economy into a recession. While this scorched-earth tactic carries risks for China too, it underscores Beijing’s willingness to weaponize its economic leverage in a full-scale financial war, sending shockwaves through global markets and challenging the U.S.'s economic dominance. Reality Check - In theory, this may be devastating. But in practice, this could be a double-edged sword. China is one of the biggest beneficiaries of dollar-based systems. A financial attack would hurt the U.S. but implode China’s own reserves, capital markets, and credibility.
Economic Rationing and Wartime Self-Reliance: China is quietly restoring rationing systems for essentials like grain, meat, and oil, while re-embracing central planning and mobilizing unemployed youth for national service. These measures echo Mao-era desperation and suggest the CCP is bracing for severe external shocks—sanctions, global isolation, and soaring unemployment. It’s a preemptive shift to wartime footing. But the strategy is fraught with danger. As hardship deepens, the risk of popular unrest grows. Reality Check - could leaf to an elite mutiny—especially when 80–90% of Chinese officials hold assets abroad. The leadership may be preparing for siege, but it risks may be igniting a crisis from within.
Geopolitical Realignment and Proxy Strategy: China is working hard to deepen alliances with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, forming a hardened axis to counter U.S. influence. Simultaneously, it’s expanding its footprint in Southeast Asia—especially in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand—through infrastructure projects and military cooperation. Beijing is also working to erode U.S. ties with key allies like Japan, Australia, and South Korea by exploiting regional disputes and economic dependencies. On a broader front, China is leveraging global frustration with U.S. policies—trade wars, sanctions, and perceived unilateralism—to weaken transatlantic unity. The goal: to fracture Western cohesion and build a multipolar world where American dominance is no longer guaranteed.
Xi Jinping’s strategy in the current tariff war is not about direct confrontation.
It is about enduring—and reshaping—the global order through disruption.
He is not seeking outright victory on the tariff battlefield. Instead, Xi aims to weather the economic firestorm, leveraging the chaos to reposition China and rewrite the rules of global trade.
While Trump escalates tariffs and demands direct negotiations, Xi sidesteps, refusing to play by Washington’s script. Rather than yielding, he rallies Southeast Asian nations, deepens regional ties, and presents China as a pillar of stability amid American unpredictability.
Xi’s message is clear: “There are no winners in a trade war, or a tariff war.” Yet, as the U.S. and China exchange ever-higher tariffs—145% from Washington, 125% from Beijing—he turns the turmoil to China’s advantage, expanding influence and forging new alliances. Xi’s plan is not to win the tariff war by conventional means.
It is to survive, adapt, and emerge stronger from the chaos—rewriting the scoreboard on his terms.
Now, let us listen to another video by Lei.
She lists four reasons why Xi Jinping is fighting back hard.
Along with these reasons, Lei lists 3 strategic countermoves that China is planning
There is another factor that one must remember.
So what do we have here?
The Trade War was started by Donald Trump by announcing exorbitant tariffs to counter China.
China retaliated, while others didn't.
Why?
Because, at this moment, in terms of its strength, China may be better prepared to handle and dismantle an America-led global order.
There is a sentiment across the world about how the US-led order has undermined their sovereignty. Which was in many ways a necessity for the US because of its guarantees-based super power status. As NATO lead, it had to give a guarantee that an attack on any NATO country was an attack on it. And the other was the economic guarantee. US Dollar has been the reserve currency, so if the global oil trade uses it as the main currency, it needs to be absolutely strong irrespective of the US economy.
This guarantee-based "leadership" led to a scenario where US establishment wanted the world to work as per its desires and ways. When the countries or leaders deviated from its script, they were targeted and put down.
That history of a power-backed leadership that compromised countries and leaders and used them as cannon fodder has created resentments that the Chinese can now exploit.
For example, this Japanese lawmaker, Shinji Oguma, says how Trump Tariffs are a mess and that no country should give in to "US extortionists".
It is the same message that Xi Jinping is reiterating in Vietnam.
As Tom Friedman shared in his podcast based on his visits to China, most of the commentators in the West get China wrong.
Yes, China has its vulnerabilities, but it has strengths that are hard to beat by any other country.
Let's see what options China and the US, as well as the EU, have against each other.
China doesn’t see the EU as a unified bloc—it sees a fractured archipelago of economies, ideologies, and ambitions. A soft underbelly waiting to be exploited. And Beijing’s strategy is simple: divide, conquer, paralyze.
It starts with exploiting intra-EU rivalries, such as the long-standing tensions between Germany and France over industrial policy. Where Berlin pushes export-driven pragmatism, Paris calls for state-led sovereignty. China leverages both to stall coherent economic defense.
Then come the strategic carrots—infrastructure investments, trade deals, and political favors—offered to nations like Hungary, Greece, and Serbia. In return, these states become reliable spoilers, wielding their vetoes to block EU-wide resolutions on Taiwan, sanctions, or trade restrictions against China.
On top of that, China can start fuel movements in the EU with targeted propaganda. Anti-U.S. sentiment. Anti-Ukraine narratives. Anti-NATO disinformation. All designed to erode transatlantic unity from within, turning European elections into battlegrounds of confusion and division.
The result? A European Union that cannot act in unison, even as the stakes rise—from Taiwan’s defense to technology embargoes. A continent silenced not by force, but by fragmentation.
That would be the goal of the asymmetric battle: weaponizing democracy’s divisions while cloaking larger ambition in trade and diplomacy.
China knows Germany is the engine of EU manufacturing, and has been and will continue to target that engine with precision. By flooding the market with inexpensive electric vehicles, it undercuts Europe’s own EV startups and erodes the market share of giants like Volkswagen, BMW, and Renault.
Simultaneously, it could dump solar panels, wind turbine parts, and batteries at below-market prices, hollowing out Europe’s green tech industry.
This isn’t free trade—it’s economic warfare. The goal is clear: dominate key sectors, erode Europe’s industrial base, and make even Germany dependent on Chinese supply chains. If unchecked, this strategy could dismantle the EU’s technological sovereignty from within.
If the European Union fully aligns with U.S.-led sanctions against China, Beijing’s response will be swift, strategic, and severe. The first move: a ban on rare earth exports—critical to Europe’s wind energy, electric vehicle production, and military technologies. By choking these essential supply chains, China can stall Europe’s green transition and cripple its high-tech manufacturing.
Next, Beijing will target Europe’s economic soft power. Tourism flows will be frozen, luxury goods boycotted, and agricultural imports—especially from France, Spain, and Italy—hit with punitive tariffs or informal barriers. China has done this before. It’s not retaliation. It’s coercive diplomacy with economic teeth.
Then comes the shadow war: investigation campaigns. They are calling these companies "unreliable entities". On April 9th, they announced the names of Shield AI, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Cyberlux Corporation, Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Group W, and Hudson Technologies Co.
Chinese Ministry of Commerce： China has added six U.S. firms to its unreliable entity list, effective from 12:01 p.m. on Thursday.
— Chinese Embassy in US (@ChineseEmbinUS) April 9, 2025
The six U.S. firms are Shield AI, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Cyberlux Corporation, Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Group W and Hudson… pic.twitter.com/F2pxEUn1H4
Other companies could face the same.
Major EU companies could suddenly face probes into “national security risks,” “data violations,” or environmental infractions. Offices may be raided. Licenses threatened. Operations can be slowed under the guise of a legal pretext. Can all this be done to convey a clear message? Align with Washington, and your market share in China becomes a liability.
China understands leverage. It won’t strike where Europe is strongest.
It’ll strike where Europe is dependent.
Meanwhile, what can the West do?
The West must reclaim its industrial soul. Manufacturing sovereignty will become a matter of survival.
Step one: unite. One way could be to establish a Transatlantic Supply Chain Council. The U.S. and the EU need to work together. Not to issue memos. But to fight. To co-invest in rare earth refining in Sweden, Greenland, and Australia. To break China's monopoly over the minerals that power the modern world.
Step two: build clean tech, not excuses. Create solar panels and EVs that don’t come with a CCP stamp. Jointly owned, IP-secured, and strategically scaled.
Step three: crush the Chinese insurgent companies. Temu and Shein are not businesses—they are economic malware. Enforce tariff parity. Impose consumer safety laws. End the free ride. Shut down digital shell firms designed to dodge taxes and IP protections.
The battlefield is no longer just factories and trade routes. It’s feeds, filters, and algorithms. China’s information war is relentless—spinning narratives, distorting truth, and hijacking minds. The response must be equally uncompromising.
First, cut the cord on TikTok. The U.S. must either ban the app or force a full divestment of Chinese ownership. This isn’t about data privacy alone—it’s about sovereignty of thought. Once the U.S. moves, the EU should follow suit with rigorous algorithmic audits and transparency mandates. No more black-box influence operations.
Second, go on the offensive. Fund and elevate Western-aligned influencers who can tell authentic stories—about democracy, dignity, and freedom. This is not propaganda. It’s narrative sovereignty. It’s reclaiming the digital public square from authoritarian manipulation.
Third, expose the enemy. China’s “Spamouflage” disinformation networks—AI-generated propaganda posing as grassroots commentary—have already been detected across Europe. Shine a light on them. Build watchdog alliances between governments, tech firms, and civil society to dismantle these digital mirages in real time.
Information is a weapon. And in this war, silence is surrender. The West must wield truth not passively, but with precision, power, and purpose.
In the great realignment of global power, the West can no longer afford to treat swing states as neutral observers. They must be converted into coordinated strategic assets—politically, economically, and technologically.
Let's start with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico — rising manufacturing hubs that are being courted by both China and the West. The U.S. and EU should offer a high-stakes package: debt restructuring, manufacturing grants, and priority trade access in exchange for alignment on supply chains, tech standards, and democratic values. Do not look at it as charity — it’s geopolitical investment.
Next, expand intelligence cooperation. The Five Eyes alliance—rooted in Anglo-Saxon trust—must evolve. Perhaps into a “Nine Eyes” framework, with India, Japan, France, and Germany brought into the fold. Shared visibility into Chinese cyber operations and influence campaigns will be critical.
After this, cement the economic flank. Create a U.S.-EU-Japan trade zone anchored in three pillars:
Examining the China vs. US/EU scenario, we see that the chessboard has been laid out.
If the EU and U.S. act swiftly and in unison, they can contain China’s expanding shadow empire, disrupting its grip on global markets, technology, and influence networks.
A coordinated strategy can isolate Beijing’s economic coercion and reverse its encroachment on critical systems. But hesitation or division is fatal.
As the fog of the war of the initial Operation Sindoor settles, it seems that the Trump administration was working behind the scenes against India in a far more profound way than we thought. What does that mean for us? Let us analyze.
The terror attack in Pahalgam was not just an assault on India — it was a global strategic move. China, Pakistan, Qatar, and Turkey are working together to bleed India and trap America. If India falls, America has no path left to contain China.
Tariffs are breaking old trade ties. AI and robots are rewriting the rules. The U.S.–China split is just the beginning of a new world map drawn in algorithms, not alliances.
What if a trade policy wasn’t just about economics—but about resetting the entire global power structure? Trump’s 2025 tariffs are doing just that. We look at the strategies, and hidden levers behind this economic disruption—and explore what it means for the world.
