Can War with Pakistan be Avoided?

Last updated on Dec 26, 2008

Posted on Dec 26, 2008

After the Mahabharat war, as the story goes, Krishna was cursed by Gandhari, mother of Kauravas that just as her entire family was destroyed, his Yadav clan will too.  Why?  Because she believed that if Sri Krishna wanted, he could have avioded the war since He was God.

To his credit Sri Krishna tried his best to avoid the war but the ego of Duryodhana was too big for his conciliation.  Remember in that society Religion was not even an issue!  Once war was imposed, fighting it was, according to Sri Krishna – a DUTY for Arjun.  Nothing less would do.

In the current situation that has developed in the world, can wars be stopped?  I have been thinking about the Indo-Pak situation a lot, because in my view it is indeed the Mother of all conflicts.  It is a conflict that British created deliberately or at least helped create via the Kashmir imbroglio – which threatens to consume the world!

It is pretty obvious to most observers now (even an American friend just wrote about the same thing to me today) that somehow it now seems clear that 26/11 was a construction to help Pakistan create a war like situation with India so Pakistan could take away the focus from the Afghan border.  In fact, so predictable is Pak establishment’s mind that even I had predicted an adventure from Pak in September.[1]

Now, despite the fact that these attacks were choreographed to get the most provocative reaction from India, it really never came.  So, Pakistan is going ahead on its own to create a complete war-like situation for the focus to be shifted from the terror set up and its links with Al Qaeda and Taliban.

The question about the situation as it stands now: If you are not a person who wants war, what do you do… if after a brazen attack on your soil, you are being threatened with one anyways!? (ek to chori upar se sina zori)

I think to understand the options against Pakistan’s terror network one has to look at it carefully.  Pakistan’s establishment survives on a few things –

– using its “strategic” location to literally extort money from the West
– using its now very well established terror network to make money from other countries: opium in Afghanistan, drug trafficking in India and elsewhere, fake money induction in India and elsewhere, etc.
– finally, the US and multi-national aid in dollars and British pounds.

Let us for a moment understand the economy of the country to get a better look at the options.  The Exports out of Pakistan total roughly $17 bn and imports total roughly $30 bn.  (Compared to that India’s exports in (one month) April of 2007 were roughly $12 bn and imports were roughly $17 bn. India’s GDP = $4.156 trillion (2006 est.)/ Pak GDP = $437.5 billion (2006 est.))[3]

The main exports from Pakistan are agricultural and construction raw material like cement and marbles.

It is fairly obvious from the numbers – which are sure to have been hyped anyways – that Pakistan roughly consumes 2 times more from the world as it gives to it!  So how does it finance this??

Some insight comes from a well researched book by Adrian Levy titled “Deception” – where twice before Pakistan was on the brink of bankruptcy.  What did the establishment do?  First, it tried to sell its nukes and that’s where the sale to North Korea and Iran came in (perhaps even Saudi Arabia). Second time, it used its terror network to provide US with some terrorists to get the aid money.

Bankruptcy and Terror

Pakistan is on the verge of bankruptcy again.  The country’s central bank has about $8.14 billion (£4.65 billion) of foreign currency, but if forward liabilities are included, the real reserves may be only $3 billion – enough to buy about 30 days of imports like oil and food. [2]  So theoretically, if no one takes notice of this war mongering by Pakistan’s Army and also makes sure no OUTSIDER sends in any aid and none of its loan commitments are readjusted with the external donors, then in a month’s time, Pakistan establishment would have no money to even buy oil – forget flying an airplane.

Until Pakistan Army (along with ISI) remains the engine in that country, it will remain a destructive society.  But civilian Government cannot even come there until the Army and ISI are strong.  All the aid anyways goes to the elites in these two establishments and that is how the economy runs.  The feudal set up still works on islands of prosperity.  If the plug was pulled on doles given to Pak establishment by the foreign donors, then it stands to reason that the Terror Establishment will be affected directly.

The Blackmail

On the other hand, faced with such precarious economic situation, why would a country risk:

– attacking NATO arms supplies
– prepare to fight a war against India on the Eastern side?

I believe, given the completely unreasonable nature of this action (and the way – nonsensical – commentary in the country has gone about), that this is an action of a desperate establishment!  They have put all their eggs in ONE basket.  This time, whether India likes it or not, Pakistan establishment is VERY serious about war.[4]  In fact, I would NOT be surprised if it starts the war ON ITS OWN – as its unilateral calls suggest anyways.

Short of this, it will negotiate for money to “pull back”.  A month back its PM and Finance Minister were roaming the globe for money which they never got.  This is a very typical Punju way of forcing the other guy to part with his cash in return for sane behaviour.  It is like saying “Pay me or I will destroy everyone!”.

How to stop the war?

Hence, now world and India need to keep their patience.  India has to play the war of attrition along with engaging the world and donor agencies on stopping any aid to Pakistan.

On the other hand, it is not out of reason for Indian Government to hit at the traditional and big Pakistani exports.  Strategically, Indian Government can announce subsidies to industries and exports in those areas which are most profitable for Pakistani exporters and virtually kill off that outlet.

Without firing a missile, there are ways to stop this war.  At the end of these actions, I am still not certain that war will not happen.  I believe with some amount of certainty that as more and more the Pak establishment gets pushed into a corner, the more it will want to start a war anyways against India.

That is where a good defense mechanism against the Pak Nukes is imperative.  I have been saying since the Mumbai attacks that if I were India’s PM, I would be doing my damndest best to neutralize Pak Nukes!  That is agenda NUMBER ONE!

Reference Links:

1. Pak uses US aid to prepare for war against India, says Obama
2. Pakistan facing bankruptcy
3. Economy of Pakistan
4. Pak moves army closer to Punjab border, builds new bunkers

Share on


Subscribe to see what we're thinking

Subscribe to get access to premium content or contact us if you have any questions.

Subscribe Now