Drishtikone Newsletter #359: Impending Balkanization of Pakistan

Global Migraine, center of terror, and a debt-ridden bankrupt nation - Pakistan is now tethering on Balkanization. What happens next? A detailed analysis.

Drishtikone Newsletter #359: Impending Balkanization of Pakistan
Photo by Hasan Almasi / Unsplash
Graffiti on the street
Photo by Domingo Alvarez E / Unsplash
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings

Bhasmasura was an Asura or Demon.  He had been granted the power that anyone whose head he would touch would burn up and be turned into ashes.  He became a nightmare for the world and went about killing everyone at will.  

Until Sri Vishnu took the form of Mohini, a beautiful woman, and tricked him to touch his own head with his hand.  And that is how he killed himself.

Pakistan became a Bhasmasura when the West, primarily the United States, allowed it to acquire Nuclear Weapons.  It used that power to unleash terrorism around the world.  There has probably been no terror attack anywhere in the world where the terrorists were not linked to Pakistan.

In such a situation, where as Madeline Albright famously called Pakistan a global migraine, the only way was to do a Bhasmasura.

And as we speak, Bhasmasura is touching his own head.

The two attacks

On September 18, 2016, Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists attacked an Indian Army brigade headquarters.  19 Indian soldiers were killed and around 30 injured.  This was not the first such attack.  

Back on May 14th, 2002, the Indian Army brigade had faced another similar attack just a little over 200 miles away in Kaluchak.  Just far worse.  18 family members of the Indian army personnel had died in that attack.  The dead included 10 children! (Source: NYT)

Source: MEA, Govt of India

The Kaluchak attack was part of the elaborate design that included teaching a lesson to India in the aftermath of the attack on the Indian Parliament (which happened on December 13th, 2001).    

The Indian PM Vajpayee had brought the forces eyeball-to-eyeball at that time in January.  During that time, Pakistani President Musharraf gave a speech where he was to share a "resolve to not allow terrorism."

In January 2002 President Musharraf gave a keynote speech pledging that Pakistan would not allow terrorists to operate from Pakistani soil. He again called on the government of India to resolve the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir through dialogue. India said it would wait for action to back up his words. (Source: BBC)

At the height of that confrontation, the Godhra train massacre had been orchestrated.  That massacre triggered a deadly set of riots that reverberated across India and the world for many reasons.  Primarily for falsely implicating a man who had just taken on the reigns of Gujarat.  

Insightful newsletter of Drishtikone: Issue #255 - Gujarat Riots - The Facts and the Truth
Art of deception is when facts are right in front of you and yet you draw completely opposite conclusions to the reality. Gujarat 2002 and connected events fall in that category. Lets learn the truth.

At this point, when Maharastra, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh governments (Congress-ruled states) refused to provide their police personnel for help in Gujarat, the Indian Army presence was requested to quell the riots.

But the Indian Army was facing the Pakistanis across the border in Operation Parakram.

Two divisions had to be diverted to Gujarat. One division covers close to 50 to 75 km of border. It was a huge loss to the Operation Parakram plans!

By the time Gujarat's situation was stabilized, the time for the attack was over as winters were gone and the Himalayan region was more susceptible to infiltration and thus more issues on that front.

It was in that time of lack of options and huge lack of morale that the Indian forces were attacked in Kaluchak to further demoralize them.  Specifically by killing their wives and kids.

The Indian Government could not do a thing!

Uri was attacked on September 18th, 2016.  With very similar intentions as Kaluchak was attacked.  To teach India and more importantly, Modi a lesson.

None in the Indian or the world media picked up the similarities of the situation between 2002 and 2016.  Strangely.  Because the copybook "teaching moment" was written all over both the massacres.

It was as if a ruthlessly shameless enemy was provoking a tiger and mocking him to show up in the ring.

On September 24th, 2016, Indian PM Modi pointed at the Pakistani establishment and shared his one hard objective with respect to Pakistan.

Very clearly. And very determinedly.

"India has succeeded in isolating you [Pakistan] in the world. We will ramp it up and force you [to] live alone in the world." (Source)

Force Pakistan to live alone in the world!

That was the retribution.  Not throw bombs or missiles.  But make you so lonely that you will cease to be worth anything in the world.

On September 29th, 2016 Indian forces conducted a surgical strike across the Line of Control within Pakistan Occupied Kashmir territory.

Source: "4 hours, choppers and 38 kills: How India avenged the Uri attack" / Times of India

That action was the immediate response to Pakistan for the attack on Uri.

And also partly for the Kaluchak massacres.

The full plan for Pakistan's future that Modi had in mind was yet to unfold.

Whispers of the impending future

In our last newsletter we left off at a point where, given the nature, postures, and potency of the violence and hatred unfolding across the world from the forces aligned with Pakistan and its allies, within and outside India, it seemed obvious that we were facing a "fight to the finish".  The contours of the battle and its objectives, defined not by India or Indians but by those who see this as a terminal situation.  An assessment that may be forced upon them by other factors.

Then came two interesting videos by very different sources that suggest some "closed door discussions" where "world after Pakistan" is being discussed very seriously during the UN sessions.

It is worth watching and listening to Mr. Ajakia.

And here is another from the PGurus channel, which builds upon that discussion.  However, knowing the seriousness of the PGurus channel, there may be more inputs into this than just one video.

So broadly what both - Arif Ajakia and PGurus' Sree Iyer are talking about is something like this.

These videos echo what Michael Hughes had also said in 2010 in HuffPost.

The most popular approach to fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which would unite the Pashtun tribes. In addition, the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh would become independent sovereign states, leaving Punjab as a standalone entity. (Source: "Balkanizing Pakistan: A Collective National Security Strategy" HuffPost)

Interestingly, the final push for the breakup of Pakistan and takeover of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir may have started with the abrogation of Article 370.  Article 370 and the inclusion of Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union also extended to PoK even though it was not so explicit.  And this is the point that most of the folks missed!

The abrogation of article 370 itself has greater legal ramifications, not limited to just J&K. Article 370 also applies to POK, Gilgit Baltistan and Aksai Chin. This is because the instrument of accession applies to the whole of Kashmir and not just J&K in India’s control. What Pakistan doesn’t realize is that by protesting against abrogation of article 370, they are admitting its provisions. This means that they are in fact admitting that POK and Gilgit Baltistan should be under Indian administration. As of this writing, the Pakistan think tank has realized this and their protest is more on supposed human rights violations than the abrogation of the article itself. This means the people of POK and Gilgit Baltistan can actually demand that they are merged with the Indian UT of J&K. As the UT of J&K and Laddakh develop economically, the poverty-stricken folks across the border will definitely want to be a part of this prosperity. This applies to Aksai Chin also, which explains why China is peeved. (Source: Balkanization of Pakistan, Times of India)

The takeover of PoK is an eventuality that the Indian Army has been working on.  And the former Indian Army Chief and CDS had hinted about that in 2019.

Source: Economic Times

All this comes at a time when many things are converging together at the same time.

A reset by the Americans

In 2004, when the US needed a presence in Afghanistan, Colin Powell, the then US Secretary of State, had declared Pakistan as a major non-NATO ally.

Source: The Guardian

Over the years, the United States gave way over $25 billion in economic and military aid.

Source: Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and Pakistan to the Brink and Back, By Bruce Riedel

In the first week of September this year, US gave some assistance to Pakistan for its aging F-16 fleet.

On September 8, the Biden administration approved a $450 million F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan to help it meet current and future counterterrorism threats, in Washington’s first major security assistance to Islamabad in four years. (Source: The Hindu)

This obviously did not go well with India.

“For someone to say I am doing this because it is all counter-terrorism content and so when you are talking of an aircraft like a capability of an F-16 where everybody knows, you know where they are deployed and their use,” he recently said at an event for the Indian-American community in the US.  The US was quick to respond to the foreign minister’s comments and asserted that India and Pakistan were both partners of the US with different points of emphasis.  “We don’t view our relationship with Pakistan, and on the other hand, we don't view our relationship with India as in relation to one another,” Ned Price, the US State Department spokesperson, told reporters at a news conference.  “We look to both as partners because we do have, in many cases, shared values. We do have, in many cases, shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own,” he added. (Source: Outlook)

As India's foreign minister Dr. Jaishankar shared in his answer to a question posed to him - the US-Pakistan relationship has served neither's interests.

So, is all hunky dory between US and Pakistan.  Yet again?!

Here is an interesting metric.  As many as three-quarters of Pakistanis view the United States as an enemy, while only 10 percent of Americans trust Pakistan.

And no matter how much the Pakistani establishment, as well as the US establishment, have fancied each other as allies, the results are there to see.  Now, there are calls for a reset to this extremely toxic and unproductive relationship.

For decades, U.S. policy toward Pakistan has been predicated on America’s goals in Afghanistan. Pakistan both helped and hindered the U.S. war on terror, making for a notoriously dysfunctional relationship. Now the United States is out of Afghanistan, and the relationship is on shaky footing. It’s time to reimagine it.  The United States must treat Pakistan as a country in its own right, not as a fulcrum for U.S. policy on Afghanistan. That starts with America disentangling itself from the close military relationship with Pakistan.  A reset won’t be easy: Resentment is rife. America sees Pakistan’s support for the Taliban as one reason it lost in Afghanistan; Pakistan sees the Taliban insurgency it faced at home as blowback for partnering with America next door. In Washington the grim mood has led to talk of disengagement and sanctions. Neither approach will work or be satisfactory in the long run. Pakistan, meanwhile, wants a broad-based relationship with the U.S. focused on geoeconomics — which is not realistic. (Source: "The U.S. Needs a Reset With Pakistan", by Madiha Afzal Dec 25, 2021 New York Times)

Just for context, in December 2021, Pakistan (under the then Prime Minister Imran Khan) had skipped U.S. President Joe Biden’s Summit for Democracy even when Khan was invited.

The reason - Imran Khan never got a phone call from US President Biden after he was installed as the Pakistani PM.

The Biden administration has narrowed the scope of the relationship to limited engagement on Afghanistan — and given the lack of a phone call, made clear that high-level engagement is not a priority. Khan and his government have perceived that as a snub, and that is part of the subtext for the declined invitation. Khan, who has made clear that he wants a relationship with the U.S. that values Pakistan’s sovereignty, is likely to find support for the decision at home. (Source: Brookings)

The reality of Pakistan is that it is on the brink of disaster.

Pakistan is on the brink of an economic disaster with hardly USD 8 billion in foreign exchange reserves; a trade deficit of USD 50 billion; inflation at 18 per cent, exports of a meagre USD 32 billion and the dollar reaching nearly 245 along with fuel, gas, electricity, food, and medicines price hikes, reported The Express Tribune. (Source: The Print)

With foreign exchange reserves with the Central Bank at $8 billion and another $5.7 billion with commercial banks, Pakistan barely has enough to cover a month's worth of imports.  And out of these $8 billion with the Central Bank, $3 billion are from Saudi Arabia just for parking these funds to stabilize the Pakistani rupee.  These $3 billion cannot be used for repayment.

Source: Economic Times

On August 29, 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the last remaining $1.1 billion in funds for Pakistan.  Clearly, these would not be enough to ward off the disaster staring in Pakistan's face.

Devastating Floods in August

As Pakistan stares at such an impossible economic situation, it faced the worst floods in its history.

The floods have killed 1,100 people, affected more than 33 million residents, wiped out 1 million homes and destroyed about 2,200 miles of roads, Pakistani officials said Tuesday. Nearly 500,000 people are in displacement camps, and many others have nowhere to go. (Source: "Pakistan reels from ‘apocalyptic’ floods, pleads for international aid"/ The Washington Post)

Quite simply, a third of Pakistan was underwater. (Source: Live Mint)

Predicted losses are huge!  Some say $12.5 billion.

Pakistan is now predicted to experience an economic loss of $12.5 billion as a result of the destruction caused by flooding, with inflation projected to reach a record high of 30% by the end of this fiscal year. (Source: Rescue.org)

Others, like the UN Secretary-General, put the figure at $30 billion.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday that floods are estimated to have caused about USD 30 billion in economic losses to Pakistan, which is facing its worst floods situation in the last 30 years. (Source: Business Standard)

The devastation is truly sad and apocalyptic.  The worst thing that has transpired through all this is the impact of agriculture, the mainstay of Pakistan's economy.  80% of rice production in Sindh, which provides 42% of Pakistan's rice production has been lost!

88% of sugarcane and 61% of cotton has been lost.

Source: DW

To feed the hungry and provide sugar to its people, Pakistan will be forced to import.  From being an exporter of food to an importer will further hit the forex reserves.

Source: Seattle Times

Already people in Pakistan spend 50-80% of their income on food and nearly 6 million people go hungry in the Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh provinces.

In such a situation, over 800,000 hectares of farmland have been wiped out by the flooding!

It is a food crisis like no other.

The Centrifugal Pulls

Pakistan was built on the Two-Nation theory of Mohammad Ali Jinnah.  An idea that has been laid to rest when Bangladesh separated from Pakistan in 1971.

The central core - which essentially comprises Sunni Punjabis - has subjugated every other group throughout Pakistan's short history.  Punjabis represent 40% of the country's population but constitute 90% of the armed forces (Source: HuffPost)!

Source: New York Times

In fact, it is common knowledge in Pakistan that cricketers from Karachi face tremendous bias and prejudice from the establishment that is predominantly Punjabi.

Source: SportsTiger

In a Punjabi-Sunni-dominated country, there are as many separatist movements as there are provinces.  

Let us take a look.

A) Pakhtunistan (Pashtunistan) - History of Afghan disaster

The problem between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not new.

The North West Frontier Province had not voted for Muslim League in the 1946 Provincial elections.

Source: Electoral History of NWFP

Later in 1947, during the North-West Frontier Province referendum, where the question was to decide whether the NWFP of British India would join India or Pakistan, Pakistan rigged the elections and the result was that 99.02% went in favor of Pakistan and 0.98% in favor of India.

The inherent disenchantment within Pakhtun-dominated Afghanistan remained up until the time of Sardar Mohammed Doud Khan.  Doud was the cousin of King Mohammad Zahir Shah who led a coup d'état in 1973 to overthrow the monarchy and became the first President of Afghanistan.  He worked hard against the Pakistani government to fight for Pakhtunistan.

Source: countrystudies

In April 1978, when Russians unleashed the Saur Revolution, Doud was assassinated and Nur Muhammad Taraki was made the President.

It was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who turned the tide on the Pashtuns. He not only cracked down on the Baloch and Pashtun Nationalists, but he also came up with the idea of supporting an Islamist movement in Afghanistan against the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) Government, which was backed by the Soviets.  Brig. Naseerullah Babar (also the home minister in Benazir Bhutto's government) had set up a secret military-training program for Afghan students near Peshawar with the approval of ZA Bhutto.

"I told the government we must have some elements to influence events in Afghanistan in case there was trouble," Babar later explained. "We took them under our wing and started giving them small-arms and specialized training." It was a watershed decision: a first step in a steady shift toward what the British had euphemistically dubbed "forward policy" -- direct intervention in Afghan politics. (Source: CNN)

A policy by Pakistan that would devastate Afghan, the subcontinent region, Pakistan, and the rest of the world.

In recent times, specifically in 2018 - Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which was hitherto the notorious autonomous buffer zone with Afghanistan, were also merged into the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (that was earlier known as the NWFP).

This has created further discontent within the Afghan people and government.

The alignment of interests between these parties goes deeper: seeing as the Afghan Taliban and TTP are both Pashtun, it is thus concerning that—at the same time the Afghan Taliban continues to challenge Pakistani territorial integrity by rejecting the Durand Line—the TTP is concurrently pressing for a reversal to the merger of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Together, these efforts could mainstream the idea of a Pashtun-inhabited tribal borderland with a potential associated separatist movement. It also connects back to the Afghan Taliban’s double game in facilitating Islamabad-TTP talks while simultaneously enabling the TTP, with both angles designed to maintain leverage over Pakistan. (Source: Atlantic Council)

Moreover, the entire "War on Terror" by Pakistan has been directed at FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions.

The new Taliban, the animosity between Afghans and Pakistanis, the Durand Line issues, and the cavalier behavior if not torturous and sectarian towards the Pakhtuns by the Pakistani establishment may have set up grounds for separatist movement by the Pakhtuns.

B) Sindhudesh: Discontent out of Partition's Legacy

Allah Bux Soomro, the Sindhi Muslim politician had warned his people that partition will prove more devastating than the local Muslims had imagined.

However, the Sindh assembly became a pioneer by passing a resolution for joining Pakistan after partition. Though Allah Bux Soomro, a renowned Sindhi politician, was against the idea of Pakistan as well as the resolution passed by the assembly. He is reported to warn G.M.Sayed, who was at the forefront to pass the resolution to join Pakistani state:  You will get to know that our difficulties will begin after Pakistan's inception. Presently, Hindu trader and money lander’s plunder is worrying you, but later you will have to face Punjabi bureaucracy and soldiery and the mind of UP.’ (Khan, 2005)  This warning was going to be true as the post-partition period saw a major influx of refugees from India. Sindh became the biggest recipient of this influx of refugees (Mohajir). Soon it became clear to indigenous Sindhis that the situation would not be so simple and easy to say welcome to their Muslim brethren coming from India; rather, a fear started to grow that a massive number of refugees would swamp them. Incoming refugees were politically trained and more literate than natives; therefore, gradually, they started to become dominant on the provincial and central power structure. Furthermore, the imposition of the One-Unit scheme proved a damning act to undermine the regional identity of Sindh. Sindh provincial assembly passed a resolution against this but in vain. The scheme continued until 1970, when on 30th March 1970, the One-Unit scheme dissolution order was promulgated, and the provinces of West Pakistan were restored to their earlier position. (Source: Global Regional Review)

Currently, multiple separatist groups like Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz - Aresar group, Sindhudesh Liberation Army, and Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army still function in Sindh and are still fighting for Sindhudesh.  They were banned in 2020 by the Pakistani government (Source: The Dawn)

C) Balochistan - People who stopped China

Balochistan was an independent nation until May 1948 under Khan of Kalat.  The struggle that the Balochis undertook against Pakistan and Pakistan's repression of their rights is quite instructive.

Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, the Khan of Kalat, declared Balochistan’s independence on August 12, 1947.  The Balochistan parliament rejected merging with West Pakistan on several occasions between December 14, 1947 and February 25, 1948.  The Khan of Kalat agreed to the accession of Balochistan into West Pakistan on March 27, 1948.  Government troops entered Balochistan on April 15, 1948.  Government troops attacked the residence of the Khan of Kalat in the city of Kalat on October 6, 1958.  Government troops arrested the Khan and several hundred Balochi political leaders on October 6, 1958.  The government declared martial law on October 7, 1958.  Nawab Nauroz Khan (Mir Naroze Khan) led a rebellion against the government beginning in October 1958.  Balochi tribesmen led by Sher Mohammad Marri rebelled against the government in the tribal areas of Mengal, Marri, and Bukti between 1963 and 1969.  The Baloch Students Organization (BSO) was established in support of Balochi independence in 1967. Government troops and Balochi rebels clashed in 1967 and 1968, and Balochi rebels were largely suppressed in 1969. Elections were held in 1970 and 1971, and the NAP won eight out of 20 seats in the Balochistan Legislative Assembly. The government announced the formation of the province of Balochistan on July 1, 1971.  (Source: University of Central Arkansas / Pakistan/Balochistan)

On April 26th, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) suicide bombers attacked the Chinese staff outside the Confucius Institute of Karachi University (Source: Dawn).  This was not the first attack on the Chinese by the Balochis.  There was a suicide attack on Chinese engineers working in the Dalbandin area of Balochistan in August 2018.

As much as these attacks were against Pakistan, they were even more so directed against the Chinese.  Immediately after the attack, the BLA warned the Chinese of harsher attacks to come if they did not quit Balochistan.

After all, the Chinese were not just creating the CPEC highways and taking control over the port of Gwadar, but also taking over the natural resources.

The number of Chinese stakeholders investing in Balochistan has grown steadily over the past two decades. A Chinese state-owned company built, and now operates, Balochistan’s strategically located Gwadar port, which some argue holds the key to China’s energy supremacy. The Arabian Sea port is the centre of the US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – the game-changer project in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, allowing it a gateway between Western China and the Indian Ocean. Other projects as part of a mega development under the CPEC are also being funded by China in the restive province. (Source: Lowy Institute)

Despite the news reports that CPEC work has stopped and/or stalled, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor officials are putting up a brave face and saying everything is going great.

A top Chinese official involved in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in Pakistan has denied media reports and statements by Pakistani lawmakers that work on the multi-billion dollar infrastructure and energy program was delayed or suspended, while Pakistani legislators insisted work had been halted, particularly in the southwestern Balochistan province. (Source: Arab News)

Balochistan separatist movement is real and will have major consequences on the Pakistani future.

D) Gilgit Baltistan - Pakistan's Kashmir Separatism

While Pakistan has been so aggressive on the Indian side of Kashmir, the fact is that its own side of Kashmir which it has illegally occupied is in dire straits.

In 2006, the Gilgit Baltistan United Movement (GBUM) officials wrote to Shaukat Aziz, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan stating their own autonomy.

It is a fact that Gilgit Baltistan Regions are not integral part of Pakistan. As Government of Pakistan admits this reality; there is no moral justification of subjecting the local communities to the clauses of the constitution of Pakistan. (Source: Human Rights Journal)

In recent years, the plight of the people of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir has come to the fore.  

Source: ZeeNews

All 10 districts of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are up in arms.  They are seething in anger at their state.

Districts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) are witnessing massive protests against the Pakistan government's plan to bring in the 15th Constitutional Amendment that will transfer the financial and administrative powers of the local government to Islamabad, local media reported.The citizens of all 10 districts of the region are infuriated at the government's move. These protests have taken a turn for the worse in Rawalakot, Bagh, Poonch, Muzaffarabad, and Neelum Valley among other areas of PoK.Recently, Shabir Choudhry, an activist from the region had said that with this move to introduce the 15th Amendment to the Constitution, Pakistan is eyeing to control the region's natural resources and urged the people to raise their voice against this "naked aggression and imperialism" where all is controlled by the Pakistani army and country's property tycoons."Pakistan wants to conclude its imperialist and strategic game plan which it started in October 1947. This imperialist agenda began in name of Islam, and the captured prey shall be slaughtered with the 'Islamic touch'," Choudhry said.He said that Pakistan is using Islam to camouflage its imperialist agenda. Since October 22, 1947, the activist noted that people of PoK are living in the false sense of being independent or liberated. (Source: ANInews)

Things got very interesting, albeit in a sad situation when a resident from PoK was imploring Modi to come and liberate the residents from Pakistani control and imperialism.  Malik Wasim is seen highlighting how authorities in PoK's Muzaffarabad have forcibly evicted him from his house and let him and his children off on the streets in winter.

With the right push and help, Pakistan-controlled Kashmir could see itself as an independent area.

Pakistan Army - a divided institution

The Pakistani Army is the only institution within Pakistan that has had the power to hold that nation together even when its politicians have made a mess of everything.  

Corruption is very high everywhere.  But Army was supposed to be one group that would think of Pakistan first.

But it was no different.

Recently Pakistan General Asim Saeed Bajwa was accused of owning several franchisees of the US pizza chain Papa John's.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s top aide Lt Gen (retd) Asim Saleem Bajwa resigned on Friday after allegations that he used his offices to help family set up several off-shore businesses. (Source: Indian Express)

The issues with the Pakistan Army started when General Javed Qamar Bajwa, Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan Army recently got an extension of 3 years.  This was a result of a lot of behind-the-scenes shenanigans and intrigues, where the General was even accused of being an Ahmadi. (Source: General Bajwa’s extension: Byzantine intrigues or bumbling by an inept government?)

All this and more was exposed by Indian YouTuber Major Gaurav Arya 3 years back.

At that time he was criticized by the Pakistanis and their sympathizers.  

Over the last few years as the political leaders have been under pressure, the Pakistani Army - the Holy Cow in Pakistan - has become the favorite punching bag of everyone.

Initially, when the Imran Khan government was installed, Nawaz Sharif attacked the Pakistani Army directly.

“Who is responsible for the destructiveness of this incompetent government of Imran? Who is responsible for silencing the media? Who stole Senate elections? Who is responsible for pre-poll rigging and horse-trading? Who is responsible for the disaster brought by Imran Niazi? Mr General Qamar Bajwa this is a gift given by you. You are responsible for the sufferings of this nation facing troubles,” said Sharif in a speech aired in October 2020 at the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM) procession. (Source: University of Melbourne)

But as Imran Khan was taken out and the Shahbaz Sharif government installed, Imran Khan became more aggressive.

Imran Khan warned the Pakistan Army during his speech at a party rally in Gujranwala on September 10, 2022.   He said that the "establishment" (euphemism for the Army) should be held responsible if the country and economy were to “plummet any further” under the incumbent government.

Consequently, General Bajwa was forced to start distancing himself from Khan, creating difficulties for Khan’s government. This created tensions between the two, which bubbled to the surface after reports emerged that Khan had refused for weeks to sign off on replacing General Faiz Hameed as intelligence chief, reportedly because Hameed still favoured Khan as part of his own bid to become the next Chief of Army.  (Source: University of Melbourne)

In the latest video, Major Gaurav Arya has shared how the Pakistani Army may be far more divided than believed.  This could be very decisive in finally creating the ruptures within the whole security and military apparatus within Pakistan.  Also responsible for complete inaction as the country spirals into balkanization.

As Vicky Nanjappa had discussed the steps and journey for Pakistan's Balkanization, the road starts with a weak Pakistan Army.  As the Army gives way to smaller factions within and the fissures come out in the open, the slide to breakup will be tough to handle.

The first step towards balkanisation would be to weaken the Pakistan army. It is the Punjab-Pashtun dominated army that rules Pakistan and the democratically elected government has always been a puppet. As long as the army is intact in Pakistan, it would be slightly difficult says former Research and Wing Analysis Officer, Amar Bhushan.  Bhushan tells MyNation that there is a lot of support in the provinces for balkanisation, but they will be brutally suppressed by the Pakistan army. In this scenario one would have to point to what happened in the USSR. The institutions were being democratised and in the long run the army was weakened, which eventually led to the fall of the USSR. (Source: "Beat it and slice it: Here’s why it’s time for balkanisation of Pakistan" / MyNation)

As the US loses interest, Pakistan's economic and social woes mount, politicians engage in terminal battles and the Armed forces are weakened internally, we may be looking at the final break-up of Pakistan very soon.

Sooner than we had expected.

"Leaders of Pakistan hear this. The sacrifice of 18 of our soldiers will not go in vain."

Modi had added on September 24th after the Uri attack.  Yes indeed.

Video Corner: Grooming Gangs aka Love Jihad

Dr. Ella Hill is a Rotherham grooming gang survivor.  She shares how she and many others are groomed and raped by Pakistani Muslim gangs predominantly.

  • Dr Ella Hill defines the activities of the grooming gangs as ‘racially and religiously aggravated rape’, perpetrated by a group or network. She revealed that the grooming gangs primarily target underage girls but also victimize young and old women.
  • She then reiterated that there have been half a million victims of grooming gangs in the UK alone in the last 40 years. “And it’s predominantly white victims and the perpetrators are predominantly Asian Muslim,” Hill emphasized.

This is worth listening because the Love Jihad or more consistently Grooming Jihad victims in India go through the same experiences.  We need to call these groups as Grooming Gangs and seek an equivalence with what has been happening in Europe.

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