AIG close to the cliff; and a financial run down becomes a likelihood

Last updated on Sep 16, 2008

Posted on Sep 16, 2008

This post is from the email sent by my friend, Bobby.   His warnings and analyses have been PAT on.  Now, AIG is on the verge of collapse.. it could happen any time!


The AIG Insurance is going to file for bankruptcy, so I would suggest that you review car insurance, home insurance, life insurance, and switch to new carriers – REVIEW ALL YOUR INSURANCE AND ANNUTIES.  Most states will allow you to get back unused premiums.  Most of us pay these premiums by credit cards, if you get after your credit card, you may be entitled to a refund on car insurance, home insurance, or life insurance.

The politicans (McCain) are in favor of AIG failing, and it will likely be a scam on the elderly as they will lose pensions and life insurnace annuities (not sure if there is any federal protection of annuities).

As a side note, I’ve been saying for years that it’s not a good idea to purchase insurnace or protection if you can afford the risk, as when time comes to pay up — these guys turn into fly-by-night operations.  Sit on your money and keep it with you!

If you have a cash balance plan and can cash out, it probably will make solid sense to get a check today (otherwise the whole thing may be worthless tomorrow).

Why is AIG important?

Well, many banks are INSURED by AIG itself!  This insurance from AIG provides these banks the risk cover and helps keep their ratings in place!  If AIG goes down.. it is a tail-spin of sorts!

AIG is saying here that it has insured $307bn of corporate loans and prime residential mortgages that are on the balance sheets of banks, mostly European banks.
The banks have bought this insurance to protect themselves against the risk that these loans would go bad, that borrowers would default.
Their motive for doing so was to reassure their respective regulators – such as the FSA for UK banks – that these loans are of minimal risk.

This guy puts it in the best way possible so let me put it in bold:

If AIG went down, a number of banks’ balance sheets would be mullered – there would a dangerous risk to the stability of the global financial system.  Or to put it another way, AIG is so pivotal in the global financial system, it can’t be consigned to the dustbin of history in a precipitous way.

FDIC is potentially UNDERCAPITALIZED / Run on Retail Banking

Nouriel Roubini, NYU’s Stern School’s professor has warned that we are seeing a run on the retail banks!  As this article notes, FDIC, which ensures and pays up for the failed banks is ITSELF severely undercapitalized now!  We are now looking at major bank and financial instiutions failures – and since FDIC has about 5% of the capital to take care of the Government insurance, there is a serious and a real danger to the liquidity of the market and safety of your money!

But Americans are justified to be worried, says Nouriel Roubini, of NYU’s SternSchool and RGE Monitor, who notes there is already a “slow-motion run on retail banks” occurring nationwide.
That “run” could accelerate as people realize the FDIC fund has about $50 billion to “insure” about $1 trillion in assets at the nation’s financial institutions, says Roubini. “They’re going to run out of money” unless Congress acts soon to recapitalize the FDIC.

Comments from my friend, Bobby

FDIC would probably be bailed out by the government, if not, then the only remaining options are US Treasuries as these are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government.  The US Government is authorized to print money, and as a result US Treasuries can always be paid back with printed money (whether or not the currency is worth something or not).  GOLD & SILVER (are accepted currencies world wide) and have the additional benefit that they are stongly protected against inflation.

Lehman Brothers = Fly by Night ( Took hardly 2 months for them to go under)
Bobby had warned of Lehman Brothers in this bloog post just 2 months back!!

Please take the time to reduce your brokerage accounts below $500,000 in securities per account (SIPC insures securities upto $500,000).  You can also order Stock Certificates to be mailed to your home by the brokerage (this is the old school way — in our parents or grand parents years this was the way stuff was done!

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