When we look at any game of chess, we have to look at the end game first. Where will this move lead the opponent to.
Let us first get some of the things out of the way in this analysis – like who did it? With the involvement of Jaish, which is known as ISI’s ‘sword arm’ and the modus operandi (no “home grown” terrorist can garner 100 or 300 kgs of explosives) the hand of a major force is assured, specifically the ISI. As ISI’s new Chief Lt Gen Munir probably wanted to prove his mettle to his countrymen and his bosses, the chances are that this may have been his way to showcase his wares to them.
So, if ISI managed and orchestrated the whole operation with a new thrust to the whole Kashmir terror operation (that of suicide bombing and use of vehicles laden with explosives) then the situation it is creating in India could not have been its ultimate end. To understand this, we have to look at the intention and the ‘end game’ of the player we are dealing with.
One interpretation could be that which C. Christine Fair – a Pak observer whom I respect greatly – discusses. That Jaish and ISI wanted to promote Modi in the coming elections. Why? To ensure its base is intact within Pakistan.
However, these factors do not explain the timing of the attack. I argue that it has much to do with the election. Pakistan knows that Prime Minister Modi is facing a tighter race than he did five years ago and there is little doubt that Pakistan wants to ensure another Modi victory. (Source)
However, this argument makes a very simplistic assumption. That ISI and Pak Army is a demi god which can decide its own and others’ destiny while others simply lay down and wait for them to act. This is insulting and quite simplistic if not juvenile.
The almost super-force like position of ISI may have been there while Pakistan dealt with India of the past.
But if the last 4 years have been any indication, then Pakistan’s very existence is now in danger. More importantly, Pakistani Army is strapped for cash, which has dried up from every source – remittances gone after major middle-east lay-offs, US grants non-existent, exports dwindled despite Rupee devaluation, and even Saudi help not as forthcoming.
One needs to appreciate that Pakistani Army is not just a “fighting force” for the nation (although its officers don’t fight but use terrorists and without fighting a single war, its Chief has an array of medals!) , but also the owner of most major businesses within the country – from owning steel mills to making cereals! It is an Army which is known to have what are called Military Millionaires.
Even though, the Pak Army or the ISI are not the smartest folks on this planet when it comes to economics, they have made up for that weakness by using devious tactics that have fooled/forced/made people to give them millions of dollars. And, they openly talk of “milking their strategic geographic advantage.”
It is only now that such monies are drying up. Replacing US with China as the main ally is good for discussion, but Chinese are not as idiotic as the Americans. They don’t give money. They buy you and your conscience.
And, a lot of this situation has been perpetuated by the duo of Modi and Doval. They have ensured that Pakistani economy and the whole cash structure (with falling exports and rising imports) is a complete mess. The parleys with Nawaz Sharif, the befriending of him at personal level, the pressures on the UAE and the Saudis to kick the Pak labor out, and communication blitzkrieg to isolate Pakistan has worked. And it has dried up the economy. Even the latest “investment” by Saudis to the tune of $20 billion are projects, not doles or monies. They will put the project and take out the finished good, while getting hefty subsidies! This money ($20 bn) is NOT for paying off the debt! And, the $3 bn that they have given as cash is to be parked, not spent! Even that is at over 3%!
So, Ms Fair’s characterization of this attack as Pakistan Army’s way to bring Modi doesn’t cut it for me at all! I don’t believe for a moment that Modi – even if I put any super conspiracy hat on – is beneficial for the Army. In fact, if he decimates the Congress and the opposition in the coming elections, Pakistan will lose all leverage in India.
If you look closely, the India of Modi is like the Pakistan of Zia ONLY in terms of strategic dominance in South Asia. Minus the religious bigotry. Modi, despite his critics is not a bigot and neither does he allow that to occur.
Having watched with great consternation, the ways in which Zia ul Haq danced around and made idiots out of Indian establishment (remember the “cricket diplomacy”?) while ensuring that we have wars on 2-3 fronts waged by his well-trained Jehadis, I cannot but acknowledge how strong a grip he had over India. And, with idiots like IK Gujral giving him the names of Indian spy assets in Pakistan in the name of Punjabi bhaichara, the decimation of India’s infrastructure was complete!
Modi is to Pakistan what Zia was to India of 1980s.
One who has the power, intent and the zeal to destroy Pakistan from within and without. And in Doval he has the ideal partner to help.
So, Modi’s re-election is not Pakistan Army’s dream. It is their greatest nightmare. And, they know it. Read this tweet from Gaurav Pradhan, a person whose tweets have a habit of being accurate in hindsight. When he writes, they seem cryptic and outlandish. He knows of inner happenings that many do not.
Here, Bunty and Babli mean – the two main campaigners from Congress.
If, therefore, Modi love is not what is driving Pakistan Army, and it is in cohorts with the Congress establishment (Aiyar home meeting, Sidhu drama and Rahul Gandhi’s parleys with ISI); then Pulwama has massively backfired! In fact, even if Modi does 20% of what he wants, he will still win. Everyone knows who will save India if this is the Pakistan they face.
Given how high nationalism in India is right now, the whole Pulwama Attack can be considered to be the most spectacular suicide bombing for the entire Pakistan itself!
Nothing can ensure the demise of Pakistan faster than Modi and nothing can ensure the re-election of Modi than the high level of nationalism just 2 months before elections!
Then what gives?
Massive and deadly riots!
That is the middle game for Pakistan. Pulwama was the opening. Riots is the middle game. Atrocity literature and Global campaign against Modi is the end game. To a point where he becomes a global pariah.
That is the only scenario which ensures the preservation of Pakistan Army and Pakistan as a nation having a shot at coming back from this brink where it can continue on its regular course of propagating terror around the world.
For India it will be another return to the rise in terrorism of the 1980s, and an establishment which will milk the country dry. Hinduphobia will reign supreme to a point where Hindus, the Gurus and those who showed any inclination to the BJP will be openly and righteously persecuted. And, this is not fear mongering – Kapil Sibal and Abhishek Singhvi have made open and public threats with respect to this sentiment.
In many ways, this election, with the level of dirty game being played by the opposition, Pakistan, China and many other powers – is a defining moment for India.
There is no room for Yudhishter in this situation. Krishna’s ways need to be resorted to. Do what is right. Even if it means that one has to seek Truth via untruth.
When Karna’s wheel was stuck and he alighted the chariot to move it out, Krishna ordered Arjun to shoot him – which was against the original rules of war. Karna looked at Arjun and Krishna in dismay and reminded Krishna of that. Krishna retorted – where were these rules when you all killed a lone Abhimanyu? Where were these rules when you danced around a teenage kid’s corpse? Was that per rules?
Those who have blown the rules of war to smithereens, cannot seek refuge of them again. Treat them with ruthless decisiveness.
While the opening game of this battle for the existence and soul of India was played by Pakistani Army, the middle game and the end games will be played by internal sepoys of Pakistan and the Breaking India forces. Those who call themselves Indians but work against it.
It is time to ensure that they are neutralized in a way that they cannot act and play those games. Even while ensuring that no riots happen.
If Social media propaganda is any indication, there are enough groups and activists (primarily the Tukde-Tukde gang) who are raring to create riots. In fact, CRPF has had to issue a special advisory to the effect.
While the anger against those who are to play the middle and the end game is there. We need to somehow ensure that nothing leads to riots. No matter what.
Options to stop the Middle and End Games of Pak and #BreakingIndia forces
And, for the government there are very few options. Given how intertwined so many emotions, issues and forces are, and how difficult it is for anyone to control things, this is not the time for a Scalpel. It is the time for a sword.
Declare national emergency with immediate effect.
Yes, it will be ironic and yes, it will be debated, even lead to issues and deploring of Modi government and accentuating the charge of “fascism”. Maybe some groups may do some excesses – which should be strongly clamped down, which I know Modi would do – and some may suffer. But for the future of the country, we need a decisive action.
In absence of that, the forces that are working inside and have a free reign to play the middle and the end game, will not stop at anything. In absence of an emergency, there is no way to detain or work to put them out of circulation for the time that we need to handle this situation.
And, no matter how we look at it, India is looking for a war in some fashion in the coming weeks. So, the emergency can be timed per that. But in no case should it be delayed any more than is needed, lest the players that have been prepared for it can make their next moves.
Sometimes, one needs to listen to what people who can look beyond have to say and then decode the message. Sadhguru sent a message on twitter for Indian PM Modi, someone who highly regards him. It was a message thatsaid a lot in very few words
. In many ways, the message was very uncharacteristic of Sadhguru.
For one, he never gives “opinions”, for they are mere gossip. He never advises people in specific terms specifically on a public forum. He never ever would say things just for the heck of it – but only when it is absolutely critical and imperative.
And, given his message, the actions that may be needed to ensure what he says should happen, could actually lead to many complications. A place which anyone who has ever known Sadhguru with some seriousness knows, he would never enter.
He is asking the Indian PM for a special action. One who can see more than ordinary folks can is pointing to a direction that is not usual of him to do. Sadhguru has gone out of his normal space to say somethingspecific
to the Indian PM. And, it points to a decisive action that may involve curtailing of many freedoms to put the forces that will act NOW in abeyance.
It is time, Mr Prime Minister, to declare a national emergency. The perennial Human rights fighter, the United States, will not and can NOT say a word, for its own government has declared a national emergency over a toy that its President is obsessing over. And, given how things are, with so many intertwined forces around the world and alliances breaking up, any decisive action publicly will be difficult for any nation.
If at all, the stance towards what India does now – as long as Pakistan/Congress chess game is not allowed to go further with – will speed up the realignments in the world. And, it may lead to hidden fissures in the global geo-politics surfacing in a big way. Which may not be good for the world right now, but will be good for the future of humanity.
So, PM Modi, please go ahead and declare a National Emergency with a clear mandate to all the local forces, specially the CRPF to be deployed internally so that no one does any excesses.
The time and place to shoot at Karna has arrived. Don’t flinch.