What Does a Trump US Presidency mean for the World?
London has a Muslim mayor, Sadiq Khan. And, the Republican Party’s preumptive nominee Donald Trump in the US has called for a ban on all Muslims from coming to the US. So someone asked Trump as to what will happen if Khan comes calling to the US? An exception will be made, was Trump’s reply.
Well, Sadiq Khan, it turns out, is in no hurry to visit the US and has decidedly said that he isn’t interested. So, thanks but no thanks!
Meanwhile the British Prime Minister David Cameron, made the comment “Trump would unite us all against him”. He was referring to how the parliamentarians are calling for his ban to enter the UK after a petition with 500,000 signatures has been doing the rounds. As to the suggestion of Muslims ban in the US, Cameron called it “divisive, stupid and wrong.”
What did Trump say to that?
“It looks like we’re not going to have a very good relationship. Who knows, I hope to have a good relationship with him but it sounds like he’s not willing to address the problem either. Number one, I’m not stupid, okay? I can tell you that right now. Just the opposite. Number two, in terms of divisive, I don’t think I’m a divisive person, I’m a unifier, unlike our president now, I’m a unifier.”
Says who? – would be the obvious response of any sane person to this self certifying delusional retorts from Trump.
This is the United States of America. Not Trump Steaks or Trump University that if it goes down the drain, barring a few, no one else would care two hoots about it. And, in the world, you do not “get everyone to listen to you, because you are powerful”, but the other way round – “You are powerful ONLY because everyone listens to you”! And why would anyone listen to you if you are the sorry, mean cowboy from the Wild-West? If you “shoot and abuse” your way around the world, then guess what? Others respond in kind. Just so we level-set on our understanding – Putin is no Marco Rubio and Xi Jinping is no Ted Cruz. And, just because Trump’s ego howls about how Obama is the cutting of Evil on the planet; he is nowhere near where ISIS is and what it can do.
Most importantly, ISIS, Jinping and Putin don’t read, hear or care about the US media or Trump campaign managers. They lead countries and groups that can and have taken the entire US on via covert war and terror.
In Geopolitical games, stakes are high and costs permanent. If things go bad, there is no option to declare bankruptcy and start over. Basically, once you lose, you are down and out for several centuries! Britain knows that very well. China has a historic view that extends back several millennia. In comparison, the US history seems like a blip!
Trump versus Putin is like a Roulette player versus Kasparov on a Chess board. You don’t need to even guess who will win. The only question will be how badly!
China and Russia: on a “Come-back” trail
There were times in world history, when both these countries were amongst the richest and the most powerful in the world. Russia in the last century and China many centuries back. They want to get back where they think they belong. So, they are being aggressive. Putin has taken a leadership role against the ISIS and has been bombing their targets which US is not willing to engage. China is becoming a big presence in South China Sea. As the US warship strolled into the South China Sea, and as it came near the man-made island of China, the Chinese scrambled its own jet fighters!
We are, therefore, dealing with two countries and leaderships which test your resolve and seriousness and can be aggressive for every geopolitical issue. Trying several ways and manners of communication along with setting aside ego and high-handedness becomes the key in such a scenario. For the US to be a have-been world power will take just a few years of global engagement where it can no longer dictate terms. That gap will be enough for Russia and China to push their superiority through to take a lead.
At such a juncture, the best bet left for the Americans will be to somehow see the term of Trump to end.
Anti-establishment is also Diplomacy fool-hardy
Given the negatives that have entered the world of governance in the US democracy, and the extreme emotions that have been whipped up and brought forth by the two ends of the political spectrum; anti-establishment is the Mantra today. Admittedly, establishment is beset with issues and problems that common men and women find unsurmountable to fight in order to sometimes even live a decent life. Jobs and industries are compromised. Wealth of the middle class is usurped by the rich who are in bed with the powerful. There are millions of injustices.
But there is one strength to the establishment. It has deep roots and checks. Some have tried to shake the parts and components of the establishment which were responsible for governance – like how the combine of Dick Cheney, Scooter Libby and George Bush did in case of Iraq. They gamed the governance. But, the “establishment of governance” did strike back. It does.
In this Republican season, however, the destruction of the establishment seems total as Trump is the poster child of the anti-establishment. The sentiment to the extreme right is so pronounced that their worst prejudices and most shameful bigotry is being echoed by a candidate whose character and person is as ephemeral as the wave on the beach. The only thing he knows is how to be the buoy of America’s deepest racism and bigotry.
If Bush was the altar boy of the American right, Trump is their choir lead. He has taken their sickest song to a crescendo where even the words and sermons of the pastor have been lost. The worst of the American right has massacred the bad amongst them.
With the fall of the establishment, and the rise of the worst of extreme right racism and bigotry, we have a situation where IF Trump was to ever win, the populist darkness will become the norm in this country. While that may wreck havoc with the minorities within the country. Without though it will be ripe for unchallenged interventions by forces inimical to the US itself.
In the administration of the man who loves “to do deals”, Chinese need not enter the country surreptitiously. They can boldly and smartly do deals which can totally mortgage the future forever. With the closed and secret character of the establishment that harms the citizens, will also go the wisdom of diplomacy and geo-politik. There is a wisdom of centuries on how to deal with the different interests. When the norm of engagement changes to “deals”, the better dealer will win. And, no one knows how to do deals than the countries which have had to fight their way through the power struggle with almost nothing with them. For over 300 years, the Western power has overwhelmingly ruled the world. It is has been well-nigh impossible for anyone else to dominate. In that scenario, the less powerful but the over-ambitious have done deals to live through. The next battle will be on their turf!
Cracks of your bigotry are doors for the Enemies
The racism and the associated violence in Trump rallies is visible. It is shameful and it is exhibited with some pride. And it is this violence, racism and bigotry that feeds Trump frenzy. This is creating victims out of minorities. Asians, women, blacks, Hispanics and even the differently-abled. Everyone has been attacked or mocked. With pride and no repercussions.
With Trump victory, the rally cry will become the national war cry! Bigoted violence and racist bullying is sure to flare up. In such a scenario, a smart enemy can easily add fuel to the fire.
Conversions to Islam in prisons are common. The change of that population – specifically black – to Islam and radical Islam at that is well known. Plug in the right polemics to the already hate-spewing sermons in the mosques and along with hate-spewing Churches with a hate-spewing President to defend the latter, you have a volatile situation. The American right may win the battle against “those evil-doers”. But it will lose the war for the United States.
Don’t be surprised if this country is brought to the brink of another Civil War. Minus Lincoln.
That, my friends, is the risky world we are staring at with a Trump victory, which given the alternative of Hillary Clinton looks very possible.