The Indian budget every year has always been an eagerly awaited event. For many decades, the best minds in economics, finance, tax, business and industry throng the media house to analyze the provisions shared by the Financial Minister.
Sometimes major events completely disconnected may be data points for the plans of the different powers around the world. The challenge is to discern what purpose they serve? More critically, what are we moving towards?
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
Internal breakdowns of the societies, global fissures, and war preparations across the globe - the War now seems imminent.
Once, in ancient Japan, there lived a renowned samurai known for his prowess in battle and unwavering courage. As the winds of war swept across the land, the samurai found himself embroiled in the turmoil of conflict, facing the daunting prospect of engaging in yet another fierce battle.
Amidst the preparations for war, the samurai sought respite and solace in the tranquil abode of a revered tea master. The tea master, known for his wisdom and serenity, welcomed the samurai with grace and humility, offering him a moment of reprieve from the impending chaos of battle.
Sitting in the serene tea room, the samurai gazed upon the delicate porcelain teacups and the meticulously arranged scrolls adorning the walls. The ambiance exuded an aura of tranquility, a stark contrast to the tumultuous world outside the tea master's dwelling.
As the tea master prepared a steaming pot of green tea, the samurai's mind was consumed by the weight of impending conflict. Sensing the turmoil within the samurai, the tea master spoke with gentle yet unwavering conviction, "In the midst of war, one must cultivate the art of inner peace. Just as the tempest rages outside, the tranquility within your heart must remain unshaken."
The samurai, accustomed to the language of battle and conquest, found himself captivated by the tea master's words. "How can one find peace amidst the chaos of war?" he inquired, his voice tinged with a hint of vulnerability.
The tea master, with a serene countenance, poured the fragrant green tea into the delicate cups, each movement deliberate and graceful. "War is but a reflection of the turbulence within the human spirit," he began, his words carrying the weight of timeless wisdom. "To navigate the tempest of conflict, one must embrace the essence of mindfulness and tranquility. Just as the lotus blossoms amidst the murky waters, so too can the spirit find serenity amidst the storms of war."
If the war comes. And when the devastation happens. Be ready. With a strong tranquil mind.
A. Wess Mitchell, a principal at The Marathon Initiative and a former assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, says something stark in a November 2023 article in Foreign Policy. (Source: America Is a Heartbeat Away From a War It Could Lose / Foreign Policy)
Global war is neither a theoretical contingency nor the fever dream of hawks and militarists.
In the past year, the nonprofit coalition of physicists and researchers who oversee the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds before midnight, marking the closest point to a potential global catastrophe in the clock's 76-year existence. (Source: Axios)
Even closer than when the US and Soviets were always plotting.
No wonder those with money are looking to build security for themselves and their families.
The billionaires specifically. They are building bunkers.
Aiming to protect themselves from potential threats including civil unrest, cyberattacks, nuclear bombing, power grid failure and drastic climate-change events, many work directly with general contractors to build kitted-out end-times bunkers, while others call on a handful of specialized companies. “It got really busy, and it seems like the phone hasn’t stopped ringing; World War III seems like it’s coming,” shares Ron Hubbard, CEO of Texas-based Atlas Survival Shelters, who notes that the news about Zuckerberg’s bunker “caused a buying frenzy.” He’s currently constructing a $7.5 million bunker for a client in Oklahoma that is in the design phase. (Source: "Billionaires’ Survivalist Bunkers Go Absolutely Bonkers With Fiery Moats and Water Cannons" / The Hollywood Reporter)
The fear of an extinction-level event (ELE - mass extinction or biotic crisis) is now widespread. Now per the Existential Risk Observatory, the possibility of nuclear war causing extinction is very slight, estimated at 0.1% for the next hundred years. (Source)
However, nuclear war is a global catastrophic risk. A nuclear war could kill millions, inflict suffering on survivors, and derail human civilization. A recent scientific paper estimates that over 5 billion people could starve to death, including around 99% of those in the US, Europe, Russia, and China. (Source: Here’s How Bad a Nuclear War Would Actually Be / Time)
With the war in Ukraine and the regular maneuvering between US and the Russian camps, there is a renewed interest (and fear) in a global nuclear conflict as well. The old fears about atomic warfare are back.
Already different experts have started war gaming. Nuclear conflict simulations, for example, are strategic exercises designed to model potential scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons. These simulations are conducted to understand the possible consequences of such actions and to develop effective strategies for response and mitigation.
A four-minute audiovisual piece which has been called "Plan A" has been developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS).
The "Plan A" simulation is significant as it illustrates how the use of tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons could rapidly escalate into a global nuclear conflict. This highlights the potentially catastrophic outcomes of such actions and underscores the importance of international efforts to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. These simulations offer governments the opportunity to develop contingency plans for responding to nuclear disasters and attacks in ways that minimize escalation.
These simulations can help the general public by providing insights into survival strategies in the event of a nuclear attack.
Maybe, just maybe, some folks can learn something and save themselves.
What does this Princeton simulation suggest will happen when the nuclear war breaks out?
That is how devastating this will be.
More than 91 million people in Russia, the US, and other NATO countries might be killed or injured within three hours following a single "nuclear warning shot," according to a terrifying simulation. The simulation is called "Plan A," and it's an audio-visual piece that was first posted to to YouTube on September 6, 2019. Researchers at the Science and Global Security lab at Princeton University created the animation, which shows how a battle between Russia and NATO allies involving the use of a so-called low-yield or "tactical" nuclear weapons — which can pack a blast equivalent to if not greater than the atomic bombs the US used to destroy Hiroshima or Nagasaki in World War II — might feasibly and quickly snowball into a global nuclear war. (Source: "A terrifying animation shows how 1 'tactical' nuclear weapon could trigger a US-Russia war that kills 34 million people in 5 hours" / Business Insider)
This is the YouTube video that shows the simulations.
And this is happening not without reason.
War, a Global War, is no longer a cute topic at the conferences. It is a real fear that is pushing countries, alliances and groups to prepare for it.
Let us discuss what is happening globally in this regard.
As per another set of reports, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has raised concerns about Russia's preparations for a potential military confrontation with the West in the coming decade. This assessment is based on Russia's plans to significantly increase the number of forces stationed along its border with NATO members, including Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
Estonia, a Baltic State, was part of the erstwhile Soviet Union. A bit of history will help.
Estonia, a nation with a rich and complex history, has been shaped by a series of influences and struggles for autonomy. From early foreign rule to resistance against Soviet forces, Estonia's journey to independence has been marked by resilience and determination.
Estonia's history is characterized by the influence of various foreign powers, including the Danish, Swedish, and Russian empires. These periods of foreign rule left a lasting impact on the cultural and political landscape of Estonia, shaping its identity and aspirations for self-governance.
After the February Revolution started in Petrograd, or now Saint Petersburg, which was the Russian capital then, Estonia wanted to gain autonomy of its own. Estonians wanted to be free but the struggle for independence was met with opposition from the Soviet Union and Bolshevik forces. The Bolshevik seizure of power in 1917 and the subsequent disbandment of the Estonian Provincial Assembly posed significant obstacles to Estonia's quest for autonomy. The resistance against Soviet and Bolshevik forces from then on became a defining chapter in Estonia's history.
Estonia was then occupied by the Soviet forces and in an attempt to do Russification, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians and other "Soviet People" were forcibly settled in Estonia. This changed its demography.
So Estonia is no stranger to the war plans and the aggression of the Russians.
Kaupo Rosin is the Director General of the Foreign Intelligence Service in Estonia. And he, based on the inputs Estonian intelligence has, has predicted a major confrontation with Russia.
Neeme Brus left no room for doubt: "We Balts never forgot what the Russians are capable of." Clad in a turquoise fleece and khaki coat, Brus explained why, at 66, after a career in journalism followed by another in the army, where he was a major, he came out of retirement to take up a post as a communications strategist with the Estonian Defense League. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, 4,000 volunteers have joined this organization, which was created in 1918 when the small Baltic state was born. Banned in 1940, it was resurrected in 1991, when Estonia, which now has a population of 1.3 million, regained its independence after more than five decades of Soviet occupation. (Source: "Estonia has long been ready for war against Russia" / Le Monde)
Estonia's inputs have been rather clear but they aren't the only ones. There are others.
The German Defense Minister has warned as well.
The Germans are talking about 5- years for the catch-up, but apparently, internally they are preparing for such an eventuality in the next 5-6 months!
The scenario, titled “Alliance Defense 2025,” starts with Russia beginning a new wave of mobilizations by calling up an additional 200,000 recruits in February 2024, who then manage to weaken the Ukrainian positions along the line of contact in the next spring offensive.
In July 2024, Russia would then begin covert cyber-attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare on the West and East Central Europe in particular, while inciting Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic countries. The political crisis in the Baltics would eventually be used to justify a massive military exercise (similar to the one in 2021), called ‘Zapad 2024’ in September, involving at least 50,000 Russian troops in Belarus and western Russia. Responding to Western media and politicians’ inevitable alarm, the document pictures Russia in October starting to spread propaganda of an impending NATO attack and continuing to build up troops in Belarus as well as shipping medium-range missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave. It would then become obvious that Moscow’s ultimate goal is to occupy the Suwałki Gap—the Polish-Lithuanian land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad. With everything prepared, the outline suggests, Russia would wait until the U.S. election to begin the second phase of its plan. Anticipating that a narrow defeat of President Biden and a heavily contested outcome would cripple the U.S. for at least a few months, Moscow could begin to induce artificial ‘border conflicts’ and deadly riots around the Gap in December 2024, to eventually repeat the 2022 invasion on NATO soil. (Source: "Leaked German Defense Document Sketches out Russian War Scenario" / European Conservative)
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These war plans by the German Defense Ministry show the detailed exercises that are being carried out in many establishments the world over.
Like the United States.
Wess Mitchell says in Foreign Policy that America is just a heartbeat away from a war it could lose.
The United States is a heartbeat away from a world war that it could lose. There are serious conflicts requiring U.S. attention in two of the world’s three most strategically important regions. Should China decide to launch an attack on Taiwan, the situation could quickly escalate into a global war on three fronts, directly or indirectly involving the United States. The hour is late, and while there are options for improving the U.S. position, they all require serious effort and inevitable trade-offs. It’s time to move with real urgency to mobilize the United States, its defenses, and its allies for what could become the world crisis of our time. (Source: America Is a Heartbeat Away From a War It Could Lose / Foreign Policy)
In October 2023, a congressionally appointed bipartisan panel recommended that the United States prepare for simultaneous wars with Russia and China. The panel suggested expanding conventional forces, strengthening alliances, and enhancing the nuclear weapons modernization program.
The report from the Strategic Posture Commission, comes amid tensions with China over Taiwan and other issues and worsening frictions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. A senior official involved in the report declined to say if the panel's intelligence briefings showed any Chinese and Russian nuclear weapons cooperation."We worry ... there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct," the official said on condition of anonymity.The findings would upend current U.S. national security strategy calling for winning one conflict while deterring another and require huge defense spending increases with uncertain congressional support. A senior official involved in the report declined to say if the panel's intelligence briefings showed any Chinese and Russian nuclear weapons cooperation. "We worry ... there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct," the official said on condition of anonymity. The findings would upend current U.S. national security strategy calling for winning one conflict while deterring another and require huge defense spending increases with uncertain congressional support. (Source: "US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says" / Reuters)
Concerning the US, this is of course just the tip of the iceberg. We have discussed the control mechanisms being created in the US extensively.
According to a February 13, 2024 report by Nikkei Asia, China is preparing for a "protracted" war. And that war may be happening in the Indo-Pacific. A major reason may be China's alarm over the naval superiority of India in that region.
China is learning from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and starting to prepare for a "protracted" war in the Indo-Pacific region by making legal changes that will help integrate military and civilian mobilization, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Tuesday. Recent moves by China to ease any return of reservists and veterans to their former units as well as give the military access to civilian infrastructure and fuel stocks show Beijing's thinking about how to fight a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, said Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at the IISS. These changes suggest Beijing thinks an Indo-Pacific conflict might not be "a short, quick, swift victory after a surprise attack, but actually acknowledging that potential conflict might be protracted, and a war of attrition," she told Nikkei Asia at the launch of the IISS Military Balance 2024, an annual report. (Source: "China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank" / Nikkei)
But why the Indo-Pacific?
Because this region is China's Achilles Heel. This is where it is the weakest!
Peeyush Jain at Tata Digital's Strategy & Planning (President's Office) discusses how India plans to checkmate China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Drishtikone has also discussed this in detail.
Desh Kapoor
Specifically on how the global choke points are now becoming a big threat within the Indo-Pacific and how India is poised in this region.
It is because of the constraints in the Indo-Pacific region that China is strongly backing a Russian dominance of the Arctic Circle in a bid to have a strong presence there by piggybacking.
Another alternative that China is looking at is the "Polar Silk Road". China articulated its Arctic Policy in January 2018. (Source)
China will construct a “Polar Silk Road” and actively participate in the development of Arctic and Antarctic regions, it said in its new 2021-2025 “five-year plan” published on Friday. The plan said China would “participate in pragmatic cooperation in the North Pole” and “raise its ability to participate in the protection and utilisation of the South Pole”. China has been eyeing lucrative mineral resources as well as potential new shipping routes in Arctic regions, as ice caps recede as a result of rising temperatures. (Source: Reuters)
So China is also preparing for a confrontation in the Indo-Pacific and a world beyond that.
Now, let us turn new arm threats around the world.
Russia is in the process of developing and perfecting a very serious level of potential nuclear weaponry.
Russia is trying to develop a nuclear space weapon that would destroy satellites by creating a massive energy wave when detonated, potentially crippling a vast swath of the commercial and government satellites that the world below depends on to talk on cell phones, pay bills, and surf the internet, according to three sources familiar with US intelligence about the weapon. (Source: "Russia attempting to develop nuclear space weapon to destroy satellites with massive energy wave, sources familiar with intel say" / CNN)
What kind of damage can such a weapon unleash?
Complete destruction of modern life.
Destruction of the space satellites and assets?
And it is not just Russia.
.@DRDO_India successfully launched the Ballistic Missile Defence #BMD Interceptor missile, in an Anti-Satellite #ASAT missile test #MissionShakti engaging an Indian orbiting target satellite in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) in a ‘Hit to Kill’ mode from the Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Island pic.twitter.com/n5DEWLQpSp
— PIB India (@PIB_India) March 27, 2019
In 2022, even India tested an anti-satellite missile, although Russian weaponry seems to be far more potent in its idea.
India's unexpected launch of an anti-satellite missile test this week sparked surprise (and some alarm) among international and aerospace-industry experts. The test's success makes India the fourth country capable of destroying an enemy satellite, after the U.S., Russia and China. But how does that technology work? An anti-satellite weapon, or ASAT, is anything that destroys or physically damages a satellite. That's the broad definition. "The problem with defining an ASAT is that since most space technology is dual-use, ASATs come in many non-overt forms," Joan Johnson-Freese, professor of national security affairs at Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, said in an email to Space.com. (Source: "India's Anti-Satellite Missile Test Is a Big Deal. Here's Why" / Space.com)
Intriguingly, in cyberspace, China is most scared of India as opposed to the United States. It seems that private Indian hackers have been targeting Chinese databases and sites to get information and data from those sites.
This is when Europe sees China as the biggest threat to their sovereignty.
World this time, you see, is not just the old players that one was used to seeing taking leadership positions in the global conflicts. New and innovative players are also getting ready.
As recent developments in and around the Red Sea have shown, threats to a rule-based world order are threatened by non-state actors like pirates and Houthis.
The recent engagement involving Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting US Navy warships off the coast of Yemen represents a significant development in modern naval warfare. The use of these missiles against naval assets underscores the evolving threats faced by maritime forces and the need for advanced defensive measures.
This type of engagement is very new in terms of non-state actors. It is the first time that such weaponry has been utilized against military vessels in combat.
For naval warfare, this is being watched carefully. It requires strategies to meet challenges that demand innovative defensive strategies and technological adaptations to counter these threats effectively.
It is dangerous obviously for the US Naval ships, but these experiences are also being seen as opportunities that offer valuable insights into potential future conflicts, particularly in areas such as the Western Pacific, where adversaries like China pose significant challenges.
Understanding how to counter anti-ship ballistic missiles is critical for preparing and mitigating potential threats from technologically advanced opponents in strategic maritime regions.
The intelligence gathered from these engagements provides the US Navy with a unique opportunity to enhance its strategic capabilities. By analyzing the performance of current defensive systems and identifying areas for improvement, the Navy can refine its tactics, develop more effective countermeasures, and bolster its readiness to confront emerging threats, ultimately strengthening its position in future naval engagements.
Business Insider recently traveled to the USS Gravely, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer in the Red Sea that has been on the front lines of these efforts and has shot down several Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles. The ship's commanding officer, Cmdr. Brian Sanchez, hailed his sailors as "resilient" and said they have months of training under their belts to prepare for these sorts of engagements. "Now that we're out here, this is what we've trained to do," he said in an interview with Business Insider. "We might be seeing it for the first time, but it's nothing new, because we've had those repetitions of training." Sanchez said that the data his warship collects is sent back to the US, where the performance of weapons systems is analyzed for any technical and tactical improvements or adjustments. He credited his sailors for being able to respond to these engagements the way that they were trained to do. "They've been doing a very good job reacting the way we expect them to react and then getting right back to business and making sure the ship continues to stay ready for another engagement," the CO said of his sailors. (Source: "US warships are shooting down weapons no one's ever faced in combat before, and a Navy commander says it's a 'great opportunity'" / MSN)
But it's not just been the US. Even India has jumped in to ensure safety in its backyard - the Indian Ocean.
In February 2024, India deployed at least 10 warships, including surveillance aircraft and guided missile destroyers, to police waters east of the Red Sea. This is part of an effort to project power in the Indian Ocean and protect against piracy and regional instability. (Source: "India Projects Naval Power in Arabian Sea Amid Houthi Strikes, Piracy Resurgence" / VoA)
The Indian Navy has 132 ships. These include 216 aircraft, 14 submarines, 80 fixed-wing aircraft, 122 helicopters, and 14 unmanned aerial vehicles. (Source: "Indian Navy’s Capability Perspective" / SP's Naval Forces)
This month - February 2024 - The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released a report that describes the world as entering a new era of global insecurity.
You see, there are a number of conflicts raging around the world as we speak.
The IISS Military Balance, now in its 65th year, shows the deteriorating security environment which is exemplified by a mounting number of conflicts, such as the Hamas–Israel war, Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, coups in Niger and Gabon, as well as China’s more assertive manoeuvres around Taiwan, in the South China Sea and elsewhere. (Source: "The Military Balance 2024 spotlights an era of global insecurity" / International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) )
The report, titled Military Balance 2024, highlights how increased tensions and conflict have reshaped the global defense-industrial landscape. It also describes the world as facing a "dangerous decade" due to several factors, including:
IISS' analysis and identification of global crises seems to be a typical blueprint of how the Western colonial powers think of the world even today.
Arctic Circle, as we have been pointing to for long now as the main trigger for the Ukraine War, and the Sahel region events are only relevant because that has the potential keep the Western powers away from their ill-gotten wealth based on their plundering ways.
These two regions become a zone of trouble for the world because the traditional powers no longer can exploit them.
That the European countries - even those within NATO - are resorting to their own military force backup is critical in the eyes of IISS. Yes, that is important. But it is not as much a factor as it is a consequence of what is already being seen as inevitable - a Global conflict!
Global defense spending rose 9% to $2.2 trillion last year as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its third year, heightened concerns that China and other militarily powerful states may try to impose their will on neighbors, the IISS said. The increase was even steeper in NATO, which has supported Ukraine as a bulwark against further Russian incursions into Europe. The alliance’s non-U.S. members have boosted military spending by 32% since Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, the institute found. Ten European members reached the alliance’s goal of spending 2% of economic output on defense last year, up from just two in 2014. (Source: "A new report says the world faces a 'dangerous decade' as instability and military spending rise" / ABC)
The global military expenditure in 2022 stood at $2240 Billion! (Source: SIPRI)
Heck, Europe has seen a 30% increase in military spending. It was the steepest rise on a year-on-year increase in at least 30 years.
Just NATO accounts for half of this spending.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine helped pushed global defense spending up 9% to a record 2.2 trillion dollars, with NATO member states accounting for half the total, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said. (Source: "NATO Defense Spending Rises to Half of Global Total, IISS Says" / Bloomberg)
And it is not just the NATO that is increasing the military spending but also other countries.
In December 2022, Japan's cabinet announced a 2023 budget of 6.8 trillion yen ($52 billion) for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). This is a 26% increase from 2022, the largest year-on-year increase since 1952. (Source: The proposed hike in Japan’s military expenditure) The very next year this was further increased. Japan's cabinet approved a record increase in defense spending in December 2023 of more than 16% in 2024. This will accelerate the deployment of long-range cruise missiles that can hit targets in China and North Korea. At this time, the Japanese cabinet also shared plans to spend 43 trillion yen ($300 billion) through 2027 to bolster its military power. This would make Japan the world's third-biggest military spender after the United States and China. (Source: AP)
Germany's military spending has increased in recent years. In 2022, Germany's military spending was almost $56 billion, and its ratio of military spending to GDP reached a peak of 1.39% in 2022.
And in 2023, Germany's defense budget is set to increase by €1.7 billion to €51.8 billion. In 2024, Germany's draft federal budget is expected to increase its defense budget by €1.7 billion to €51.8 billion. (Source: Germany’s Defense Budget 2024 / German Council on Foreign Relations)
But this may not be enough. So in February 2024, German defense minister Boris Pistorius pushed for a 10 billion euro increase of the defense budget to help refill depleted ammunition stocks. (Source: "German defence minister pushes for 10 bln euro budget increase - Spiegel" / Reuters)
Why is this important?
According to a 2023 Bloomberg article, SIPRI's senior researcher Nan Tian says that the continuous increase in global military spending in recent years is a sign that the world is becoming increasingly insecure.
“Many former Eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea.” Russia also has increased its military spending. SIPRI said that grew by an estimated 9.2 percent in 2022, to around $86.4 billion. That is equivalent to 4.1 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product in 2022, up from 3.7 percent the previous year. (Source: "World military spending up to an all-time high, watchdog says" / Bloomberg)
Bottom line?
So let us see what are the major risks facing the world.
In an interesting report on top risks for 2024, the Eurasian Group has listed some major risks for the world in 2024.
Ian Bremmer
The #1 risk is "The United States vs itself".
Other risks this year facing the world are -
In its report, the consultancy calls 2024 as Voldemort of years or the annus horribilis.
Why?
Because the world is facing wars and many different crises.
Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and the United States vs. itself, ready to kick off at any moment.
United States against itself. How?
This article from France24 gives a decent explanation of the situation in the United States.
And Eurasian Group is not alone. We at Drishtikone of course have been discussing this for quite some time now.
Even Ray Dalio has warned of a "Civil War" type situation in the country.
Ray Dalio is a hedge fund guy who invests based on his understanding of the world. Dalio, however, does not provide the basis of his predictions about why a Civil War in the US is almost a certainty now.
He talks about the odds of a US Civil War at 40%!
Worse, he has something special to say about 2024 in this context.
“To clarify, I don't mean that 2024 will necessarily be a year of seismic shifts that will end democracy in the U.S. and/or take the world over the brink into a war (like 1914, 1929, 1939, 1941, etc.)—I think that there is only a 20% chance of that, which is still too high for comfort,” Dalio wrote. Dalio identifies the upcoming U.S. elections on Nov. 5 as a significant factor. Despite legal challenges, former President Trump leads in polls, winning the Iowa Republican caucuses. (Source: Ray Dalio Warns Internal Conflicts Have Precipitated To Pre-Civil War Stage: '2024 Will Almost Certainly Be A Pivotal Year' / Nasdaq)
Barbara F. Walter is a political scientist and author of the book How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.
In the book, Walter argues that the United States is at risk of becoming an autocracy and is firmly in the "danger zone". She, however, doesn't expect a conflict on the scale of the American Civil War. Walter identifies risk factors for civil war, including democratic backsliding, factionalization, and resentment. She also analyzes the circumstances that led to conflicts in Yugoslavia, the Philippines, and Iraq.
She has been studying and analyzing the growing threat of extremism and the potential for civil unrest around the world. offers a sobering perspective on the state of democracies worldwide.
She was on the Political instability task force. Data analysts and Civil War experts.
This task force found that 38 factors the task force identified could lead a country to a civil war. Of them, only 2 factors were highly predictive.
If a country had these two features, then the task force would create a high-risk list. The task force at the CIA talked about other countries but it never talked about the United States.
But she could. As a private citizen. And what she found was astonishing!
She found that both these factors were fast converging in her own country.
The United States.
Check out her Ted Talk on this.
In an article in the New York Times, there is an interesting remark.
She says that the United States is firmly within the “danger zone” of a “five-point scale” measuring factionalism and a “21-point scale” measuring a country’s “polity index,” where a full autocracy gets a -10 and a full democracy gets +10. (We’ve slid from +10 to +5 in a few years, occupying what Walter and her colleagues call the not-quite-democratic and not-quite-autocratic zone of an “anocracy.”) The numbers serve a function, corralling troubling observations into a cold system of measurement that presents itself as beyond dispute, seemingly nonpartisan and scientific. The numbers also allow her to offer empirical grounding for her work while she makes her way toward some blunt conclusions: “Today, the Republican Party is behaving like a predatory faction.” (Source: "‘How Civil Wars Start,’ a Warning About the State of the Union" / New York Times)
The vilifying of Republicans while exonerating Democrats is interesting when you see how the rule of law and democratic ideals have been crushed by the latter.
The Twitter Files, the extra-judicial tricks and tactics to halt and persecute Donald Trump while throwing the justification of "saving the country" sound so eerily similar to what the Pakistani Army dishes out regularly.
Every Pakistani General has done exactly what the Democratic dispensation is doing today. Bring down a political opponent and keep him (or her, in Pakistan's context, which of course in America's context is a non-starter even today!) out of contention from even running (or debating as has been the case with many the establishment did not like).
Because Walter gets her own political leanings entangled in her assessment, she might have severely underestimated the risk of a Civil War in the United States. Even its potency and its impact.
We, at Drishtikone believe that the American experts have highly underestimated the situation in the US at the moment. Probably because they do not want to greatly alarm the populace into taking some rash actions. Be as it may, the US is in a far worse situation than Dalio or Walter would admit to in public.
This, the internal instability within the US, will be the single biggest factor for pushing the world towards destabilization.
Many astrologers around the world are busy in their own predictions about different things.
For example, a popular numerologist in India - Sanjay Jumani - has predicted a lot in 2024. Most of it is kind of high level and wishy-washy. In such a way that he could claim that he was right.
Like he talks about some earthquake.
Tell me honestly, does anyone care for an earthquake? Every year they come. One bad one hit Turkey last year. And?
Did that break Turkey down?
No.
So these predictions are useless.
Many geopolitical experts also predict these days. Unfortunately, they run with scissors and mowers. When the world is one to be handled by a scalpel.
Geopolitics of today is not what it used to be earlier.
America's Tony Blinken and India's Dr. Jaishankar explain this extremely well in a recent exchange.
We had said in an earlier newsletter that the World War has already started.
Desh Kapoor
We maintain that.
It indeed has started.
Just because you are not within striking distance until now does not mean there is no war happening. Many are dying as we speak.
The real question that the ones who are still waiting for a "World War 3" are asking is - "When will the Western Countries be Attacked?"
Like all things that are defined by Western Exceptionalism, war is not a war until they are attacked directly.
So, that is what we are looking at.
In terms of social attacks, that has already been happening for a long now. Check this newsletter on what happened in Europe and why.
Desh Kapoor
It was controlled. For now.
But that may have been a "reconnaissance" by the powers who want to unleash wars. And they would have already gotten their answer and calibrated their plans.
The violence and battles planned may be very devastating.
The music has started. The question is when will it reach a crescendo?
Severe internal troubles in a country? A miscalculation between two adversaries? Or a dictator acting out of a whim?
Any one of those could do it.
As Dalio and Walter say, the US could be on the brink of a Civil War. And its ramifications could be catastrophic within.
Specifically because of the guns and arms policies where anyone can procure some extremely high-grade combat level arms without any scrutiny. In fact, it is available to the Americans as a matter of right. The Second Amendment right.
What kinds of arms can be legally bought in the United States? Here is a small list of the fire-arms (Source: "These 12 Outrageously Deadly Weapons Are Legal In Most States" / Business Insider):
A relatively medium scale militia does not need to "bring in arms" from other countries.
The government provides them.
Easily.
All that an adversary needs to do is bring in their soldiers and non-state actors.
Which again, the current establishment is facilitating!
Rafael Bernal
A recipe for disaster!
That, in our estimate, could be the most potent trigger.
Sometimes major events completely disconnected may be data points for the plans of the different powers around the world. The challenge is to discern what purpose they serve? More critically, what are we moving towards?
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
The US used its currency supremacy backed by its military supremacy to weaponize economics. Now, it is coming back to haunt in the multipolar world.
Rare Earth Elements (REE) will change and rule the world as oil did in the last century. China dominates that industry like no other. And it uses that monopoly to beat down on its adversaries.
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