Insightful newsletter of Drishtikone - Issue #93: The Geopolitical Shifts
How would India’s history have been different if it had information on the ways, workings, battles and the powers that were battling it out in Europe, Middle East and China? Would India’s response and preparation have been different to the Islamic invaders and the Mongols? Would a proactive strategy against the Europeans when the Indian kings had the money and power helped India remain independent and not become poor?
Geopolitics is important. Had the Indians in the past cared for this and not just focus on the spirituality alone, India’s history would have been different. If environment that fosters Spiritual work is worth creating, then it is worth preserving as well.
Otherwise, what Babur and Aurangzeb did happens to most such efforts.
In today’s world, the toughest thing for any administration in democracies like India is to give people information about the impending disasters and the forces the country faces - without giving away the secrets!
Today’s edition is dedicated to geopolitics around the world.
Bookmark today’s edition for the information and stories it has. For, in the coming months, we will see the events happening now impact the planet in ways we would have never thought possible.
“Most Americans are close to total ignorance about the world. They are ignorant. That is an unhealthy condition in a country in which foreign policy has to be endorsed by the people if it is to be pursued. And it makes it much more difficult for any president to pursue an intelligent policy that does justice to the complexity of the world.” ― Zbigniew Brzezinski
THE GLOBAL SHIFT!
Today the world will wake up to a day that was unthinkable just a few weeks back. When most of the Arab countries do not even allow a person who has Israeli stamp on his passport, UAE and Israel have signed a major diplomatic agreement to allow regular direct passenger flights, open embassies and trade ambassadors.
This has not happened in isolation. Many major geopolitical shifts are happening simultaneously. In this newsletter, we will look at all of those and see how they might fit together.
An Israel and UAE maps were what the folks in Tel-Aviv slept with.
The #TelAviv-Yafo Municipality building is lit tonight with the flags of the State of @Israel and the United Arab Emirates, following PM @netanyahu's announcement regarding the normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates! @TelAviv
This is a copy of the Joint statement of US, Israel and the UAE. As one can see, the areas of cooperation are many and quite comprehensive.
What does this mean in the geo-political terms?
There is a battle going on for the supremacy of the Islamic world. Who will lead the over 1.5 billion Muslims in the world. The de-facto leader for last half a century, it has been Saudi Arabia. Prior to that the Caliphate of the Ottoman Empire.
So in that battle, after the last year’s UNGA Summit, where Imran Khan went about ranting forever, Pakistan had decided to joined hands with Malaysia and Turkey to lead a group. Saudi Arabia took the plane which Imran Khan used to tell them where they stood! After a lot of diplomatic maneuvers, Saudis gave the Pakistanis $3 billion in cash and $3 billion in Oil payment deferment. But after a recent spat, the Saudis took away the money a few months earlier from Pakistan!
So, Pakistan is left standing under the foot of the Chinese.
The Ummah power struggle is something like this below. While Turkey, Saudis and Qatar and Malaysians are trying to lead, Pakistan is like the freckled faced step child on the side whom no one really cares for.
But this new agreement has thrown another spanner in the works. The Islamic world’s leadership crown is up in the air yet again! UAE, which always played second fiddle to the Saudis, has decided to come out of the shadows… in style!
First, Abu Dhabi pulls its troops from Yemen and leaves its Saudi coalition partner hanging. Now this. And even if Saudi Arabia signs on to the agreement, a possibility Trump left open by saying that other Arab states could join this agreement soon, it would be forever remembered as a follower, not initiator. Arab history would not be kind to the Saudis for effectively abdicating their leadership to their junior partner. (Source)
The Saudis are left alone looking like fools. Either they join the coalition and look like a follower, or break away and invite yet another player in the battle of the crown.
The other player is Turkey - which, despite its belligerence, is dancing its way to economic disarray.
And he won’t be able to keep the game going for much longer.
The Lira is plunging and economy doesn’t look like changing anytime soon.
Turkish government’s efforts to control the currency’s value through unorthodox methods has backfired, analysts say
Meanwhile, Turkey has escalated its stand against Greece as it is trying to do oil exploration in the Mediterranean waters.
A Turkish seismic vessel, the Oruc Reis, has been sailing between Crete and Cyprus since Monday, despatched by Ankara days after Greece signed a maritime deal with Egypt designating an exclusive economic zone between the two nations. Turkey says it plans to open up some of the area for potential hydrocarbon exploration, and a precursor to that is collecting seismic data it can process and sell to potential bidders. Both countries lay claim to the area. (Source)
To safeguard Greece’s interests, France has sent its Rafale jets and frigates to safeguard Greece’s interests.
France is having a major blow up against Turkey even in Libya, where they are on the opposite sides.
France is also at odds with Turkey over the crisis in Libya. Turkey has sent military support to the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, while France, Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates support the forces of Gen Khalifa Haftar. Russia and the UAE are Gen Haftar’s main arms suppliers.
So, the battles between the Middle East powers are being played up in Libya as well. And around Greece.
The French military deployment comes amid Greek-Turkish tension over oil and gas exploration.
Here is one assessment of how the Saudi-Pak spat will mean for Pakistan by Pakistani journalists Rauf Klasra and Amir Mateen. It is interesting.
EP#18-What Went Wrong Between Saudis and Pakistanis: Diplomatic Blunder or Strategic Move ? Inside
How the Saudi, UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Malaysia battle will go and what roles will US, Israel and Russia play is to be seen in the coming weeks and months.
The Lebanese explosion may not have been an isolated event. It may have some significance in the whole scenario.
India and China - the battle intensifies
China started its Galwan plan assuming that nothing had changed in India. But their calculations went completely awry.
What was assumed to be a tactical opportunity to “teach India a lesson” has now blow up as a strategic blunder. It is having ramifications which are far beyond the Chinese had anticipated.
China might have wanted to make some tactical gains at the boundary w/ India, but it's having strategic ramifications that I'm not sure Beijing expected or wanted (&, w/in the Indian govt, it seems to have strengthened the hands of China skeptics)
#5G #Huawei #ZTE https://t.co/NmnMHavosK
Yes, India struck China’s calculations badly. But China is playing another game that may have more far reaching consequences. They are recruiting the Gurkhas from Nepal to create the mountaineering divisions. The Chinese were beaten badly recently at Galwan, but now with this move - it does two things - (1) take away Nepal from India’s relationship - specifically the relationship with the Army and (2) remove the one major deficiency that hurt the Chinese in the mountain areas. Read this whole thread from Rajiv Malhotra by clicking on the tweets below, we are sharing two of the most significant ones here.
GAME CHANGER! China hiring large numbers of Gurkhas from Nepal to create several mountain divisions for Chinese army. Gurkhas are great for mountain warfare where Chinese are weak. Will be deployed across the Himalayas & Central Asia by 2024.
India’s response is???
To open-minded observant persons:
-Nepal claims Indian territory (unprecedented in history)
-Nepal foreign minister joined China-Pak-Afghan QUAD summit recently
-Compare Nepal media today vs 10 years back
-Ask Indian visitors returning from Nepal
India needs to be aware of what China’s plans are in Nepal and act now! This discussion by Rajiv Malhotra is worth watching in this context.
Ramayana & Geopolitics | Rajiv Malhotra on Lok Sabha TV
India is now in a mode where it fights back the instigations from the Chinese. Like this press release on Twitter by the Indian Embassy in China when the Global times refused to run their rejoinder to the article against India.
But the new moves will have to go further than reactive actions and retorts. We need strategic fight back and planning from India.
And, this will become exceedingly difficult if this woman and Joe Biden comes to power in November in the US. They are beholden to the Pakistan-China nexus and have been parroting the Pakistan talking points verbatim.
Kamala Harris : “Under Trump, the state department has been decimated and we don’t have an ambassador to Pakistan anymore. I will change that because to have influence in Kashmir we need a representative and that is Pakistan.”
As those who are interested in peace and furthering of progress and development, be aware of the different geopolitical situations in the world and when it comes to act, act strategically not impulsively.
Yes, Trump may not be a great guy, but right now the Democrats are just an extension of the Pakistani Islamists and China. For all his weaknesses, Trump is pushing for changes that will take the world in a different direction.
And, that may be what the world may really need. Given the mess that the last 100 years of shenanigans have unleashed.
OYO Hotels & Homes, currently operating in over 20 states and UTs, has managed to reach 30% of the pre-Covid occupancy levels with bookings led by millennials and small and mid-sized businesses (SMEs). (Source)
India on Thursday announced several developmental projects in the Maldives, including a $ 500 million Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP), billed as the largest ever infrastructure project in the country. (Source)
The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has cleared hefty penalties for violation of noise pollution norms, proposed by the Central Pollution Control Board, which may go as high as Rs 1 lakh. Permissible noise levels for residential areas is 55 decibels (dB [A]) during the day and 45 dB(A) at night. The standards for industrial areas are 75 dB (A) during the day and 70 dB (A) at night. The standard noise limit for silence zones such as hospitals and educational institutions during day time is 50 dB (A) and 40dB (A) during the night. (Source)
A Muslim leader from Meerut in Uttar Pradesh has announced a bounty of Rs 51 lakh on the head of Naveen, the nephew of Karnataka Congress MLA R Akhanda Srinivas Murthy, for his Facebook post allegedly insulting Prophet Muhammad. The social media post by Naveen had triggered riots in Bengaluru on 11th August, where a Muslim mob had attacked two police stations, injuring several policemen. 3 attackers from the mob were killed in police firing during the incident. (Source)
how Israel killed everyone who planned the Munich killings
During the 1972 Munich Olympics 11 Israeli athletes were killed by the Islamic terrorists from Palestine. Israel went after those who planned the whole operation and killed every one of them. Shams Tahir Khan shares that story in his own unique way. Worth listening to.
EP 168: ISRAEL के MOSSAD AGENT का ऐसा सीक्रेट ऑपरेशन जिसका अमेरिका भी मुरीद है | Crime Tak