Operation Sindoor Chronicle #5 - May 13th, 2025 - Was the War India's 'Stress Test'?

Nothing about Pakistan's behavior makes sense. Why is it acting like the sacrificial lamb tied to the tree by the hunter so he can get the lion? Yes, the hunter may or may not get the lion, but the lamb will be gone!

Operation Sindoor Chronicle #5 - May 13th, 2025 - Was the War India's 'Stress Test'?

The war drums may have gone temporarily silent, but the battlefield is far from cleared.

As headlines across the Indian media celebrated India’s decisive retaliation in Operation Sindoor, a deeper, more sinister theater of war was quietly expanding its reach.

A war not of bombs alone — but of narratives. Curated by media that is questioning the obvious because of staged scenes by the adversary and unimaginable pretense that defies logic.

Ideology is blurring borders, debt is subverting friendly nations' loyalty, and destabilization is camouflaged as governance.

This is not merely a Pakistan story. Nor just a border skirmish gone violent. This is the unveiling of a multi-pronged Chinese masterplan, implemented through proxy states, failed democracies, and even seemingly neutral global alliances.

What is this whole bus driving to and what is it about? The ultimate prize?

We surmise that it is -

The resource-rich Indian subcontinent, beginning with India’s Northeast.

Welcome to the real war. Stay with this so we can discuss.

Just as folks in India were waking up to the ramifications of the ceasefire and the next steps that Indian government has to get their future strategy in place, the world woke up to the US-China deal that rolls back the high tariff game between the two giants.

Source: Wall Street Journal

As shocking and bizarre as it is given the last few weeks of jingoism and rhetoric from the US administrators, it seems that one of the two powers, or both blinked.

That is why "neither side wants to decouple."

Sure. But wasn't that the argument everyone had in the run up to the whole Trump Tariff plan?!

Either that was a very bad idea. Or this is.

Meanwhile, MSNBC - not a Trump fan - says the US blinked.

Last month, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports skyrocketed to 145%. Some sectors, like cars, were hit particularly hard. Other sectors, like semiconductors, got exemptions. The numbers changed almost as quickly as the justifications, ranging from reshoring jobs to creating a new economic bloc against China. This weekend, there was a new whiplash as U.S. negotiators announced that they would scale back tariffs to around 30%. In response, China reduced its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10%. Even though the details of the negotiation are still trickling out, the White House is already trumpeting the “Art of the Deal.” While the U.S. did avoid a major economic calamity, this is not a deal. The U.S. blinked. Welcome to the tariff "omnishambles." (Source: The U.S.-China ‘deal’ is no deal. The U.S. just blinked / MSNBC)

We looked at it from the geostrategic standpoint, and this is what we realized.

Whatever it was, unless Trump has some crazy geostrategy up his sleeve, China's approach may not be altruistic, to put it mildly.

Now back to Operation Sindoor and what it means.

Things are not making sense. So we are pushing through what others are calling "obvious," but are illogical when looked at objectively.

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I. THE PAKISTANI FACADE: A STRESS TEST FOR INDIAN AIR DEFENSE

Let's just put it as plainly as we can.

Anyone and everyone in Pakistan who keeps trying to instigate Indian government and military think that they can get away with it specifically with a tanking economy, poor and low level of ammunition, infighting within the military and the states, and low morale - must be either out of his/her mind or pathologically suicidal!

But that bizarre scenario is the reality.

Why?

What if Pakistan’s drone and missile assault, coordinated with Turkish weapon systems, were never intended to win a conventional war?

Islamabad as we said lacks the funds, fuel, public support, or even the basic ammunition reserves to sustain one. What, then, was the point?

Enter China.

Think about it.

Beijing used Pakistan as a staging ground to simulate a Hamas-style aerial swarm, specifically to test the capability and endurance of India’s Air Defense System (ADS). In particular, they were watching the performance of Akash ADS under relentless pressure.

A stress test for India's weapon systems.

The results obviously stunned them. And the world. The drubbing was overwhelming in military strategy terms.

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The impunity with which India attacked not just the airbases but apparently even the nuclear facility in Sargodha and Kirana hills can only happen when your adversary is a sitting duck!

So a recap -

  • Not a single Turkish drone penetrated Indian skies.
  • China’s HQ-9 ADS, in contrast, failed miserably against Indian missile strikes.
  • Akash, once overlooked, emerged as India’s Iron Dome—a system that turned the tide of perception, if not policy.

The crazy thing is that Pakistan is not backing down any time soon.

Source: Defence Security Asia

At this moment, China is thinking of arming Pakistan further. Because Pakistan is its testing ground.

Source: China has spent billions developing military tech. Conflict between India and Pakistan could be its first major test / CNN

If Pakistan was a test - then the Chinese equipment flopped BIG time. But what they lost on the ground, they will try to obfuscate via narratives.

So from Pakistan.. and China's perspective, what is this whole war all about?

II. THE INVISIBLE WAR: EXHAUSTION THROUGH PROXY

In our view, the objective of the war was very different from what we think.

The objective of this “mini-war” was exhaustion. Not in terms of territory, but in depleting Indian ammunition, tracking ADS response thresholds, and exposing communication vulnerabilities.

India passed the test, but the test itself revealed China’s larger ambitions:

  • Operational warfare will be outsourced to proxies.
  • Tactical warfare will be built around exhausting Indian defense infrastructure.
  • Strategic warfare will follow—targeting not soldiers, but civil cohesion.

III. EASTERN FLANK: THE NEXT FRONT

As Sheikh Hasina was toppled in Bangladesh, China secured the second prong of its pincer around India.

The new power centers in Dhaka, led by Yunus-backed radical elements, are not just anti-India—they are actively collaborating with links in ISI and Pakistani military handlers.

Their targets are clear:

  • Radicalization of Bangladesh’s northern divisions, particularly Rangpur. The ISI and the Pakistani Army groups have been seen in the Rangpura, near the Chicken's Neck (a small strip above Bangladesh, which is the only link between the North Eastern Indian states and the rest of India), and Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh.
Source: Tribune India
  • Generating threats to India's Seven Sisters through infiltration and terror cells.
  • Creating “Mukti Bahini-2” counter-movements to destabilize India’s East, just like 1971—but in reverse.

So the Eastern flank of India is being worked by the combo of Bangladesh-Pakistan-China.

IV. KARAKORAM CORRIDOR: CHINA'S STRATEGIC ARTERY

After losing leverage in Gwadar due to Baloch insurgency, China’s only viable supply route into Pakistan is through the Karakoram Highway (CPEC).

  • Chinese fuel and weapon convoys have already started moving through this corridor.
  • It is being used to re-arm Pakistan and maintain war logistics.
  • Making it inoperable would cripple China’s proxy warfare capability.

The Karakoram Highway is no longer an infrastructure project—it is China’s war lifeline.

If India had to preempt the next steps by China, then disrupting Karakoram Highway (KKH) would be the number one step.

V. MANIPUR AND THE NORTH EAST: INDIA’S FRACTURED SHIELD

The Northeast is under psychological and social siege. Years of ethnic unrest, specifically in Manipur, have made the region vulnerable.

China has worked hard for this.

The Northeast now shows -

  • Geographical vulnerability.
  • Cultural fragmentation.
  • Weak logistical reinforcements from mainland India.

Any future war by China will begin — or end — in the Northeast India.

That is why, the population here must not just be defended; it must be emotionally and socially integrated.

Nationalism begins at the periphery, you see, for it to succeed in the hinterland!

VI. THE COLLAPSE OF AWAMI LEAGUE: THE EASTERN VACUUM

With pro-India Awami League dismantled, radical Islamist forces like Jamaat-e-Islami have filled the vacuum.

Why does this matter?

  • Bangladesh becomes a launchpad, not just for infiltration but ideological subversion.
  • 1971’s pro-India battle has now been inverted. If unchecked, this could turn India’s Eastern border into a new LoC.

Bangladesh is no longer a neutral neighbor. It has become a Chinese-Pakistani client state.

VII. BALOCHISTAN: THE UNCLAIMED ALLY

Balochistan is bleeding for freedom. Their war against Pakistan is India’s geopolitical opportunity. And the Indian government must act now.

Interestingly an Indian channel is already sharing that Republic of Balochistan has been announced.

Not sure about the truth of this claim. But the indications have been coming in the last couple of days.

In a bold declaration, a known writer Mir Yar Baloch claimed Balochistan’s independence from Pakistan. The statement came amid rising tensions between India and Pakistan. Mir Yar Baloch called on the Indian government to allow the opening of a Baloch embassy in New Delhi and also urged the United Nations to send peacekeeping forces to Balochistan and demanded that the Pakistani army leave the region. (Source: India, UN Given Message About Pakistan Splitting Into Two? ‘Possible Announcement Soon’ |Balochistan / Hindustan Times)

So, for India, the time to act is now:

  • Support the internationalization of the Baloch cause.
  • Back Baloch independence overtly and covertly.
  • Split Pakistan’s western front to weaken its eastern misadventures.

India’s silence so far here may be strategic, but dangerous.

VIII. WHERE IS THE QUAD?

During the entire Operation Sindoor, did you hear a squeak from the QUAD?

The deafening silence of QUAD nations (US, Japan, Australia) during Pakistan’s drone attack speaks volumes.

Meanwhile, other forces that aligned with China weren't so silent.

  • Turkey openly supplied drones.
  • China coordinated intelligence via satellites.

The West... well, just watched.

So, let's ask the difficult question that needs to be asked -

Is QUAD a military deterrent or merely a diplomatic comfort blanket?

India cannot rely on borrowed alliances to fight existential wars.

IX. THE TRADE DEAL TRAP: US CHINA CONVERGENCE

As tensions flared, reports of new US-China trade deals began surfacing as we discussed in the beginning.

So, one thing is clear - while India was fighting missiles, Washington moved to secure markets.

This is no coincidence.

Global power is transactional. India may be praised on stage but traded off in boardrooms.

Here's the bizarre scenario:

The same US that crafts QUAD could soon be pushing for peace that benefits Chinese commercial interests, not Indian sovereignty.

X. BIMSTEC & REGIONAL RESOURCE GRAB

So, think of it again.

This conflict isn’t between just three nations. It’s a redrawing of economic and geopolitical access maps.

  • BIMSTEC nations like Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Nepal are vulnerable.
  • China has trapped them in debt diplomacy.
  • Next step? What do you think that would be? Resource exploitation under pretext of economic partnerships, anyone?

Just this week, Vedanta has announced that it is working on Arunachal for rare earth minerals.

Source: Times of India

Why is Greenland’s mining protected, but Arunachal’s isn’t? The answer lies in Asian weakness and disunity.

XI. CIVILIAN RESISTANCE: A PEOPLE'S WAR

If this covert war against China and its lackeys - Pakistan and Bangladesh - has to be fought, then this war cannot and should not be won by the military alone.

  • Indians (and Nepalis, we India can work with them) must reach out to India's North eastern States.
  • Biharis and Bengalis must monitor radicalization flows that are coming over from Bangladesh.
  • Bhutanese must track Chinese troop movements.
  • The rest of the Indians must extend logistical, emotional, and strategic support.

Unity isn’t a slogan anymore for India. It’s a survival imperative.

XII. SPIRITUAL FRONT: THE BUDDHA STRATEGY

There is another front that will become important - the Buddha Corridor.

Beyond missiles, a spiritual narrative war needs to be undertaken.

Communal tensions, ideological polarization, and cultural division are the hybrid weapons of the new battlefield.

This is where Lord Buddha’s pan-Asian resonance can be invoked.

In fact, if you listened to Modi's speech from our post yesterday, you will see he called out the occasion of "Buddha Poornima". Was that deliberate?
  • Buddhism unites India, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka.
  • Mobilizing Buddhist civil society can serve as a peaceful firewall against radical religious proxies and Chinese subversion.

This is a moral and civilizational war, not just a strategic one.

THE CLOCK IS TICKING

So, let's get a reality check.

India is not in a war. India is under siege.

  • From the East: Bangladesh’s radicalization and risk to Chicken's neck.
  • From the West: Pakistan’s proxies and drone warfare.
  • From the North: China’s encirclement and economic espionage.
  • From Within: Ethnic unrest and ideological confusion.

This isn’t a war for land. This is a war for hearts, alliances, influence, and resources.

And China has fired the first shot with tanks, and even more importantly with trade, terror, and radicalization.

Only a united civilizational state can resist a united axis of proxy terror and resource grab.

The time to act is yesterday.

The moment to awaken is now.

Only unity can save India!

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