What will be the Global GDP Distribution in 2030

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The Global GDP is changing as we move forward. China which started behind India in 1970s and because of the opening up of its economy overtook India and grew at incredible double digit rates to become the second largest economy in the worl, will continue its march forward. So will US – which will keep rising steadily and above the global average.

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Meanwhile, as China grows – albeit at a slower rate than it has been growing hitherto – further, India will be one of the fastest growing economy

So Aron Strandberg took the data from the ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set to analyze the changes in GDP distribution between 1970 and 2030 specifically for the United States, China and India.

GDP Change for US China and India until 2030 (Aron Strandberg )

India And China: Historical Dominance of Global Economy

If we look back into the history, we find that India and China were #1 and #2 economies by GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity for most part of the 2000 year history from 1 AD onwards. Derek Thompson says.

I’m guessing that your first question, if you started scanning from the left, is:Wait, India was by far the biggest economy at the dawn of AD? Yup, India.

In Year 1, India and China were home to one-third and one-quarter of the world’s population, respectively. It’s hardly surprising, then, that they also commanded one-third and one-quarter of the world’s economy, respectively.

Here is a graph that helps to bring the data together.

[visualizer id=”28950″] Until 1500’s India was the biggest economy in the world. And until the 1700s, India and China collectively accounted for 50% of the world’s GDP! It is with that context that one needs to see where they both are moving towards. Will these two economies reach the levels that they historically enjoyed? For India, the main exports were the Spices, Gold and Gems; and in the current economy it is broadly speaking, the Technology skills.