The Indian budget every year has always been an eagerly awaited event. For many decades, the best minds in economics, finance, tax, business and industry throng the media house to analyze the provisions shared by the Financial Minister.
Sometimes major events completely disconnected may be data points for the plans of the different powers around the world. The challenge is to discern what purpose they serve? More critically, what are we moving towards?
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
One of the feature of the first term was his aggressive foreign tours. Many in the opposition criticized those tours without having any context of their importance. Let us understand one such trip. How Modi’s visit to Middle East turned around one of biggest geopolitical losses to China that India had suffered during the Congress era!
Visit to Oman – Duqm and Djibouti ports
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to the Middle East trip, he also visited Oman. During that visit, PM Modi signed an agreement with Muscat which allows India to gain access to the strategically located port of Duqm. Duqm is located on the Southern Coast of Oman. It is located on northwestern edge of the Indian Ocean and also provides easy access onward into the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden.
Per initial reports, the contours of the Indo-Omani agreement over Duqm are generous for New Delhi. The Indian Navy will be able to use the port for logistics and support, allowing it to sustain long-term operations in the western Indian Ocean, a hotspot for piracy in the area. According to the Indian Express, a dry dock will be available to the Indian Navy at Duqm as well, allowing for maintenance without returning vessels to India-based shipyards. (source)
China had been in the process of creating a “String of Pearls” – referring to strategic coastal facilities to counter India and other Naval powers in the region. Some of these were – military base in Djibouti, port facility at Gwadar in Pakistan, and creating the southern terminal of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
India meanwhile was working on Chabahar port in Iran.
There are two reasons why this agreement is such a big deal. One, China was trying to get access to the port and was developing the Duqm Special Economic Zone. This deal makes sure – specifically with Indian Navy getting the access – that China cannot exert its muscle here. Two, China was developing Gwadar for access to the Middle East. But with India developing Chabahar and getting access to Duqm, it has virtually choked that access for China. See the map below for the location.
So all those visits by PM Modi had a lot of strategic intent. Pulling the Duqm deal off with Oman was nothing short of a coup!
Basically, if you see, the investment in Gwadar by China and Pakistan has been all but neutralized because of these two choking points. Although some analysts are downplaying this, but with the larger security initiatives going on in the Indian Ocean, this can be a big deal.
In particular, with renewed interest in the Quadrilateral Initiative and the Japanese-led “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept gaining support among like-minded democratic states in the region, the stage is being set for a sustainable security network in the Indian Ocean. Duqm — and other facilities — are just a part of this… (source)
And, friendship with Oman has been important for many things. Remember how Fr Tom Uzhunnalil was freed from the ISIS? That was also thanks to the intervention by Oman!
How India worked on Djibouti port
Now, for Djibouti. India’s President Ram Nath Kovind had visited Djibouti last year. And thanks to that, a dialog started to counter the Chinese set up there. And later, with PM Modi’s effort and friendship with Japan, India got a foothold in Djibouti as well.
According to media reports, the agreement will require armed forces of India and Japan to help each other with logistic support, including food, water, billet, transport, petroleum, oils, lubricants, clothing, communications, medical services, base support, storage, use of facilities, training services, spare parts, repair and maintenance and airport and seaport services.
Once the agreement is inked, the Indian defence forces will be able to use the military facilities of Japan, including its overseas base in Djibouti. Apart from the US and Japan, the People’s Liberation Army of China too set up its own military base in Djibouti, which is wedged between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea and hence, a natural gatekeeper to a vital and extremely bustling sea-lane.
It is critical to work with allies and make new friendships to counter China. And it takes creativity in setting up such interventions around the world. Which is something that India is now doing for the first time in its independent history!
Creative ways and strategic relationships
The previous Congress governments had severely compromised India’s existence when they let India’s geopolitical aggressors like China and Pakistan.
It has taken a lot from the current dispensation comprising Ajit Doval and Modi’s creative genius to counter the shenanigans of China and Pakistan combine.
The change in scenario in Duqm and Djibouti port situation is one of the greatest victories of the Modi government.
The Indian budget every year has always been an eagerly awaited event. For many decades, the best minds in economics, finance, tax, business and industry throng the media house to analyze the provisions shared by the Financial Minister.
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
This visit of India left me with many questions. Many observations and inputs from different people and sections. Food for thought that I have tried to contemplate on and make sense of. Sharing all that with you.
When you analyze the last 60 years of the economic miracles of Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia versus the continued impoverished Indian economy, you get very interesting lessons. Can Indians have the wherewithal in them to do in one generation so that the coming generations may rise?
Every Sunday AM (US Time)/ PM (India time), we send out a weekly detailed newsletter. We also share other insightful notes during the week. Its free. Do sign up and share with friends!