The Indian budget every year has always been an eagerly awaited event. For many decades, the best minds in economics, finance, tax, business and industry throng the media house to analyze the provisions shared by the Financial Minister.
Sometimes major events completely disconnected may be data points for the plans of the different powers around the world. The challenge is to discern what purpose they serve? More critically, what are we moving towards?
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
India has followed a different strategy than many other nations in terms of the response to COVID-19. It has been of quick and complete lockdown. Which makes sense for such a large country with that dense a population. If the COVID-19 had gotten out of control, there was enough reason to believe that it will severely impact the economy as a whole. Even more so perhaps than the impact of the lockdown.
Now, IMF – not that they have great credentials when it comes to handling many nations’ economies and related woes – have suggested that the global economy will contract by 3% in 2020. In 2021, if the containment strategies work then IMF predicts that the growth will be around 5.8% after a rebound.
India may be the bright spot – or brighter should we say – in the world.
IMF endorses India’s response to COVID-19
IMF have also endorsed India’s “proactive response” to the coronavirus situation, which saved countless lives. As we have said earlier, had India not done the lockdown when it did, the country would have seen almost a million cases by now.
“India entered the pandemic turmoil in the midst of a credit crunch-induced slowdown and its recovery prospect becomes more uncertain,” Chang Yong Rhee, the Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, told reporters during a news conference here.”Despite the economic slowdown, the government implemented a nationwide lockdown and we support India’s proactive decision,” Rhee said. (Source: We support India’s ‘proactive’ COVID-19 response: IMF)
They are projecting that India’s 2020 growth will be around 1.9%.
This is a time when Asia as a whole will face one of the worst ever crisis in recent history. During the past downturns, the growth rates in Asia were substantially impacted even though they were positive – for example, Global Financial Crisis (4.7 percent) or the Asian Financial Crisis (1.3 percent). This time around, however, the projection is of standstill growth (or Zero). So, this situation is much worse for everyone in the world than any previous crisis that we have seen.
China, meanwhile, is expected to see a growth of 1.2% and Japan and South Korea will see a contraction of 5.2% and 1.2% respectively in 2020.
The Indian budget every year has always been an eagerly awaited event. For many decades, the best minds in economics, finance, tax, business and industry throng the media house to analyze the provisions shared by the Financial Minister.
When the US Ambassador threatened India's "Strategic Autonomy" policy over India's friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?
This visit of India left me with many questions. Many observations and inputs from different people and sections. Food for thought that I have tried to contemplate on and make sense of. Sharing all that with you.
When you analyze the last 60 years of the economic miracles of Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia versus the continued impoverished Indian economy, you get very interesting lessons. Can Indians have the wherewithal in them to do in one generation so that the coming generations may rise?
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